“The odds of Nithya Raman receiving 40% of the vote yesterday are “LESS LIKELY than picking ONE GRAIN OF SAND on Earth dozens of times in a row.” I believe elections tend to be fair. Someone help me make sense of math that seems impossible…
I ASKED CHATGPT – “What is the statistical likelihood that 40% of votes from a “new batch” of ballots go to a candidate who received 24% of votes from all other batches that represented 95% of counted electorate. Give me a % odds.”
The Answer (Part 1) – “Assuming the candidate’s “true” share is 24%, the odds that a random new batch lands at 40% or higher depends on batch size:
50 ballots-0.88%
100 ballots-0.028%
200 ballots-0.00004%
500 ballots~0.00000000000018%
1,000 ballots ~0.0000000000000000000000000035%”
My follow up -“Assume 40,000 ballots. Are the odds one in a billion? One in a trillion? Worse? This seems to be happening in Los Angeles Mayor’s race between Mayor Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.”
The Answer (Part 2) -“If the 40,000-ballot batch were drawn from the same population that produced 24% support in the other 95% of votes, then seeing 40% support in that batch would be far beyond “one in a billion” or “one in a trillion.””
—-
Click and read the rest. What Cali dems in charge are alleging is impossible to achieve.
Can you can point to any THIRD PLACE candidate who already conceded her race, who miraculously received MORE mail-in ballots than the FIRST PLACE candidate?
“California Is Blocking a Federal Audit of Its Voter RollsCalifornia allows first-time voters to register using forms of ID that most Americans would find surprising, including:
-Gym membership card
-Employer ID card
-Credit or debit card
-Prescription drug label
-Insurance card (California provides free health coverage to undocumented immigrants)”
—
“This is permitted when a voter fails to provide a Social Security number or driver’s license at registration. Our office believes this policy deserves a closer look.
We also have serious concerns about how California maintains its voter rolls. There are open questions about whether the state is promptly removing deceased voters, people who have moved, and individuals convicted of disqualifying felonies.
On top of that, California allows third parties to collect and turn in ballots on voters’ behalf (a practice known as ballot harvesting) with few restrictions. This makes it difficult to track who actually received, completed, and submitted each ballot.”
“Graham Platner supporter says she’s okay with the Nazi tattoo, but if he had an Israeli flag tattoo that would be a deal breaker for her because then he would support genocide.”
Wandering Views 
It’s magic!
Or cheating…
It’s one of them…
https://x.com/i/status/2063795138753651052
“Are you too retarded to understand that a candidate receive 24% of the in person vote, magically received 44% of the mail in votes…
…is statistically equivalent to winning the Powerball lottery 30 times IN A ROW
Explain how this is not cheating.
I’ll wait.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
Magic!
https://x.com/i/status/2063524541863719225
“The odds of Nithya Raman receiving 40% of the vote yesterday are “LESS LIKELY than picking ONE GRAIN OF SAND on Earth dozens of times in a row.” I believe elections tend to be fair. Someone help me make sense of math that seems impossible…
I ASKED CHATGPT – “What is the statistical likelihood that 40% of votes from a “new batch” of ballots go to a candidate who received 24% of votes from all other batches that represented 95% of counted electorate. Give me a % odds.”
The Answer (Part 1) – “Assuming the candidate’s “true” share is 24%, the odds that a random new batch lands at 40% or higher depends on batch size:
50 ballots-0.88%
100 ballots-0.028%
200 ballots-0.00004%
500 ballots~0.00000000000018%
1,000 ballots ~0.0000000000000000000000000035%”
My follow up -“Assume 40,000 ballots. Are the odds one in a billion? One in a trillion? Worse? This seems to be happening in Los Angeles Mayor’s race between Mayor Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.”
The Answer (Part 2) -“If the 40,000-ballot batch were drawn from the same population that produced 24% support in the other 95% of votes, then seeing 40% support in that batch would be far beyond “one in a billion” or “one in a trillion.””
—-
Click and read the rest. What Cali dems in charge are alleging is impossible to achieve.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You smell that?
Again, impossible.
Or magic…
https://x.com/i/status/2063624606167015869
“KAREN BASS DIDN’T MOVE AT ALL IN THE LATE BALLOT DROPS.
Spencer Pratt plummeted.
Nithya Raman skyrocketed.
Nothing, and I mean NOTHING about that is organic. They played all their cards to rig this thing in broad daylight in pure panic.
Let the investigations begin.
—-
Well, Newsome did say they had a contingency plan. It seems that plan was to cheat.
https://x.com/i/status/2063672173168861403
“Gavin Newsom essentially announced on tv that they had a contingency plan in place to prevent a Republican from winning!!”
LikeLiked by 1 person
🤔
https://x.com/i/status/2063419718132736439
“Over the last 20 years…Elections decided on Election Night:
Republicans: 52%
Democrats: 48%
Elections decided AFTER Election Night:
Republicans: 20%
Democrats: 80%
This is totally insane.
Nothing to see here…”
LikeLiked by 2 people
“I try not to get political. But LA is where I live, and I am here to tell you: There is 0.0 percent chance these results are legit.
Nithya Raman has no base. No one knew who she was until Spencer Pratt torched her on debate stage.
She gave a concession speech on Tuesday.
I really hope the federal government and @USAttyEssayli are investigating”
https://x.com/i/status/2063431732729466929
—-
https://x.com/i/status/2063617645694325132
“Ted,
Can you can point to any THIRD PLACE candidate who already conceded her race, who miraculously received MORE mail-in ballots than the FIRST PLACE candidate?
At any point in American history.
Literally any reference for this?
Go.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
From the US Attorney in Cali…
It’s a system designed to allow the type of fraud you’re currently witnessing.
https://x.com/i/status/2063664190473351169
“California Is Blocking a Federal Audit of Its Voter RollsCalifornia allows first-time voters to register using forms of ID that most Americans would find surprising, including:
-Gym membership card
-Employer ID card
-Credit or debit card
-Prescription drug label
-Insurance card (California provides free health coverage to undocumented immigrants)”
—
“This is permitted when a voter fails to provide a Social Security number or driver’s license at registration. Our office believes this policy deserves a closer look.
We also have serious concerns about how California maintains its voter rolls. There are open questions about whether the state is promptly removing deceased voters, people who have moved, and individuals convicted of disqualifying felonies.
On top of that, California allows third parties to collect and turn in ballots on voters’ behalf (a practice known as ballot harvesting) with few restrictions. This makes it difficult to track who actually received, completed, and submitted each ballot.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
“There’s no evidence of Capitol Police escorting protesters into the Capitol on J6″ – @kwelkernbc to President @realDonaldTrump on @MeetThePress”
https://x.com/i/status/2063693939648131256
Well, no evidence if you refuse to look for it…
It’s all on video, from the capital. Once again, Welker’s bias and ignorance is showing.
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And more…
She seems to miss a lot that doesn’t fit her agenda.
https://x.com/i/status/2063762840817631394
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The ignorance among the Dem Karen base is astounding.
https://x.com/i/status/2063965870997598292
“Graham Platner supporter says she’s okay with the Nazi tattoo, but if he had an Israeli flag tattoo that would be a deal breaker for her because then he would support genocide.”
LikeLike