46 thoughts on “News/Politics 11-1-18

  1. More good news for R’s.


    “Republicans have been hopeful about defeating Jon Tester of Montana, thereby wresting that seat from the Democrats. The polls haven’t been too encouraging, though.

    Tester leads his Republican opponent Matt Rosendale in the Real Clear Politics average by 4.2 points. He leads by 3 points in the only recent survey I know of ( by Gravis, of 782 voters).

    Until now, there has been a libertarian third candidate in the race — Rick Breckenridge. He doesn’t show up in the polls I’ve seen. However, David Parker, an associate professor of political science at Montana State University, says that Breckenridge is polling at about 2 percent.

    Breckenridge has said he expects 3 to 4 percent of the vote. In 2012, the Libertarian candidate won more than 6 percent off the vote, aided, some say, by mailers sent by Tester supporters hoping to divide the opposition vote.

    Now, Breckenridge has dropped out the race and endorsed Rosendale. He complained about the sending of anti-Rosendale mailers sent anonymously on his behalf — a repeat of the tactic used to help Tester in 2012.”


  2. Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

    “A 3-minute dose of schadenfreude”


    Such good little parrots……..

    Polly wanna cracker?………


  3. Just a bunch of mothers and children fleeing violence?

    Depends who you ask…….


    “To hear the press and its narrative allies tell it, the Honduras migrant caravan is little more than thousands of mothers and toddlers spontaneously fleeing violence in their home countries. The flight is little different from that seen in previous caravans. Any concern about crime or violence is a “scare tactic,” or “lying,” or “racism,” and there’s no evidence any of the migrants are criminals. President Trump’s warnings about the matter are simply “factually wrong.”

    Actually, a different picture is emerging.

    Specifically, signs are mounting that far from the exodus being a Madonna-and-child in flip flops narrative, the military-aged unemployed males dominating this wave of caravans are far more violent than reported. That’s not a scare story from some rightwing militia group, but the actual view of the U.S. military, whose 5,000-plus troops have been dispatched to meet the caravans and keep them from storming the U.S. border and entering the U.S. illegally as they already did in Mexico. Asked if the dispatch was all a border stunt by a reporter, Secretary of Defense Gen. Jim Mattis icily replied: “We don’t do stunts in this department. Thank you.”

    According to the Military Times:
    Publicly, the top commander in charge of homeland defense will only say the military does not yet have a full understanding of what threats will surface from the caravan. However, some violent acts that have taken place within the caravan and the way it has forced its way through the border between Guatemala and Mexico has raised concerns that the makeup of the population traveling differs from the past.

    “We are working closely with [Customs and Border Patrol] to understand the makeup and the nature of this caravan,” said U.S. Northern Command chief Air Force Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy. “This caravan is different than what we’ve seen in the past.”

    That would certainly go for the not just the first caravan headed our way, but the chain reaction of the second, third and more groups following. According to the Daily Mail:

    The second migrant caravan, believed to be armed with bombs and guns, crossed into Mexico on Monday despite a huge police presence.

    Hundreds of migrants following in the footsteps of the first caravan heading to the U.S. border crossed a river from Guatemala.


    The second group back at the Guatemalan frontier has been more unruly than the first that crossed. Guatemala’s Interior Ministry said Guatemalan police officers were injured when the migrant group broke through border barriers on Guatemala’s side of the bridge.

    Mexico authorities said migrants attacked its agents with rocks, glass bottles and fireworks when they broke through a gate on the Mexican end but were pushed back, and some allegedly carried guns and firebombs.

    There was also this:

    The standoff at the riverbank followed a more violent confrontation that occurred on the bridge over the river Sunday night, when migrants threw rocks and used sticks against Mexico police. One migrant died from a head wound during the clash, but the cause was unclear.

    The first migrant caravan isn’t without reports of violence, either. According to Breitbart Texas, they’ve already begun using their guns:

    Mexican authorities arrested two Hondurans who allegedly shot at federal police officers escorting the migrant caravan across the southern state of Chiapas. The attack follows shortly after government warnings about Molotov cocktail attacks around a second caravan near the border with Guatemala.”


    Yes, even more….


    “Mexican law enforcement officials deported two migrants traveling in the caravan that is headed for the U.S. border as they are reportedly fugitives wanted for their roles in a triple murder and drug trafficking.

    “The arrest took place as part of a joint effort between Mexico’s Federal Police and the National Migration Institute (INM) in conjunction with Interpol, Mexico’s Secretariat of the Interior said,” journalists Brandon Darby and Ildefonso Ortiz reported. “The two men were part of the migrant caravan from Honduras and requested permission to travel through Mexico.”

    Mexican authorities — in coordination with Interpol and the Honduran National Police — arrested and deported Adin Josué “N,” 21, and Juan Carlos “N,” 47, who are respectively accused of drug trafficking and being involved in murdering three people.

    The deportations of both men come as Mexican officials have warned about the caravan, saying recently that “migrants attacked its agents with rocks, glass bottles and fireworks when they broke through a gate on the Mexican end but were pushed back, and some allegedly carried guns and firebombs,” according to the Daily Mail.

    On Sunday, a migrant traveling in the caravan admitted to a reporter that he fled his home country of Honduras after he “got in trouble” for “attempted murder.”

    Another migrant admitted to a reporter last week that there were “criminals everywhere” in the caravan, saying, “It’s criminals in here. It is.””

    Liked by 1 person

  4. More numbers. 538 has had projected Democrat House gains at between 38 and 40 for several weeks, so I don’t think there is an agreed upon trend.


  5. HRW from yesterday: Interesting note; Don Jr, Eric and Ivanka all received birthright citizenship as Ivana Trump was not yet a citizen.

    Um, it’s quite possible I’m missing something, but… wasn’t Ivana Trump in the country legally, and wasn’t their father a citizen? Doesn’t seem like the kind of case the country is arguing about right now.

    The purpose of the 14th amendment was to make sure that blacks, whether or not formerly slaves, could not be denied citizenship by any legislation.

    I’ve heard a lot of nonsense about Trump wanting to repeal the amendment. It’s not about repealing it but about clarifying it. It would be interesting if a case of birthright citizenship being denied went to the Supreme Court and they ruled on what exactly the amendement means.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. As predicted here:


  7. This is quite an assertion. After all, there is The View and Hannity. At one time, there was Phil Donahue. This probably requires more study.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. 538?

    You still kickin’ that dead horse?

    That one hit wonder’s not been right in years….

    I heard a little of Limbaugh yesterday discussing the lack of credibility in anything Silver touches.


    “Then people say, “Rush, who’s gonna win the midterms?” Folks, there isn’t a soul out there who knows who’s gonna win the midterms. There isn’t a single person out there who has the slightest idea. I don’t care what poll you look at, I don’t care what professional you talk to — I don’t care what great, brilliant analyst there is — there isn’t anybody who knows who’s gonna win the midterms. You have all kinds of people that want to impress with you how smart they are and how analytical they are, but it’s like anything else in the future: Nobody knows.

    And that’s because there are so many races according to the polling data that could break either way. There are so many that are so close. But then when you say that, “Okay. Do we trust the polling data?” The polling data in 2016 was not all that hot to trot. Nobody knows. Bottom line. Nate Silver. I’ll give you an example. Nate Silver is considered a guru. Do you know why? I think it was… Was it 2014, 2012? It was one of those two elections where Nate Silver lucked into calling every state on the money.

    That feat one election ago in the past, whatever it was, gave him this reputation that he’s infallible. Since that one election where he was infallible, he hasn’t come close. It doesn’t matter. Because he came close or was dead on the money when Democrats were victorious, he’s become a guru. He’s become a shrink. He’s become a psychologist, psychologist. Democrats tune to Nate Silver to stay sane when the information they’re hearing doesn’t go the way they want it to go.

    I heard Pat Caddell say (summarized), “This Silver guy? Nice guy, but he’s never run a campaign. He’s never taken a single poll! All he does is analyze ’em! He’s never participated in a poll. He doesn’t have a polling company. He’s never run a campaign,” and Caddell’s point was you need to temper all these so-called experts with some reality. So a guy hits it on one election that happened to be exactly what the Democrats wanted to hear. It turned out to be true, and so he continues to be a guru, and the media continues to cite this.

    Nate Silver is out there saying 86% now chance the Democrats win the House. Nobody knows. So you can’t succumb to the temptation here to go blasé and become flatline, and it’s hard. Look, I will admit it’s hard. As I say, the human emotional reservoir can only hold so much, and at some point it’s gonna get depleted. Maintaining fever-pitch energy becomes a challenging thing to do, precisely when the news every day is 98% slanted, 92% slanted against you and what you believe in and what you want to happen.”

    Not to mention the open mocking his ridiculous Tweets are enduring…..


    “Here’s another bad sign for those hoping for a blue wave next week: numbers guy Nate Silver, who totally blew the 2016 election result just like everyone else in the business, seems to have retreated into a fantasy world in which Democrats retake the Senate in the midterms by winning all the toss-ups and one additional state.”


    Step away…..



  9. Limbaugh, like Hannity, is a college dropout. Perhaps Introduction to Statistics is the reason both of them dropped out.


  10. Polls in general are less and less trustworthy in this current era. Silver nailed it with Obama but his record, like that of many other pollsters, has been uneven ever since. Trump’s win absolutely stunned everyone. But Silver does still get it right sometimes.

    Even a broken clock … ?

    I still check in at 538, though, and don’t necessarily dismiss what they’re finding. But the only ‘poll’ that’ll matter, of course, is on Nov. 6.

    So until then. …


  11. 538 was closer than anyone in 2016 and Silver even wrote an article on the relatively high probability of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College beforehand. Silver is not a pollster. He is a mathematician (a statistician) and an analyst. To watch a mathematician interact with the media and political types is very humorous. He is genererally patient, but is not above flinging a few barbs at the mathematically illiterate.


  12. Poor Ricky.

    You still falling for Kristol’s nonsense?

    Despite your failed attempts to blame Trump, reality is nothing has changed. The numbers remain much the same as they were pre-Trump, going back to at least 2002. I can excuse your lack of research into it, but it’s just intellectual laziness on Kristol’s part. Or he let his agenda cloud his thinking. Again

    “Republicans in Congress approval-disapproval among voters 18 to 29 is 25-68.”

    So what. This is nothing new. Nothing has changed in a decade and a half. Congress’ approval rating has actually improved along with Trump’s recently.



    You and Kristol should stop spreading lies.


  13. More proof?

    Got it right here.

    Google is the friend of the intellectually lazy. But only if you use it.

    Keep that in mind and maybe check your facts before spouting BS next time.




    “FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 8th, 2013

    Congress Less Popular than Cockroaches, Traffic Jams “


  14. “538 was closer than anyone in 2016 ”

    And just as wrong. They had 2 choices, they chose the loser, just like all the rest.


  15. AJ, At 12:04 you are mixing apples and oranges. See if you can figure out your mistake. I will not reciprocate and accuse you of “lying”. I believe it was in fact an honest error.


  16. @12:07 still can’t distinguish between the apple and the orange. Hint: Go back and try to figure out what Kristol was talking about. Look at the specific poll questions to which he was referring. One of those is your apple. You have posted a bunch of oranges. Discard those. Go out and look for other apples.


  17. Oh sports, now?

    Maybe Silver should just stick with that then….. 🙄


    If I’m wrong, it’s up to you to do the work of showing why. Stop being lazy and do your own work. If I’m so wrong, it shouldn’t be hard.

    And if you think the age area is where I’m wrong, you didn’t dig deep enough, just like the other age groups, little has changed in a decade. And despite their claims of the yutes being motivated, they’ll let Dems down again, just like always.


  18. The bias is baked right into the cake! 👩‍🍳


    “Their faces peered out from the pages of The New York Times a couple of days ago, the Democrats who would become committee chairmen if their party wins the House.

    These mini-profiles were followed by a Times interview published yesterday with Nancy Pelosi, who laid out her agenda if she becomes speaker again.

    CNN’s Chris Cillizza followed up with this piece: “Nancy Pelosi Is Right. The Democrats Should Win the House on Tuesday.”

    Sure sounds like the media are viewing a Democratic takeover as pretty close to a done deal. It’s being baked into the cake of political coverage.

    At Nate Silver’s 538 site, the projection is that the Dems have 85.5 percent chance of being able to give Pelosi the gavel.

    Sound familiar?

    Didn’t we go through this in 2016, when almost everyone in journalism, citing endless polls, believed or predicted that we were headed for a second Clinton presidency?

    I’m not here to talk up the Republicans’ chances in the House. The atmosphere favors the Democrats, the grass-roots energy seems to be on their side, the president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, and Donald Trump, who has made this a referendum on himself, is polling around 40 percent.

    But who really knows for sure? It’s a midterm, with 435 House races. Turnout is a question mark. Local personalities and issues are a factor, although less so in this Trump-dominated race. Whether these contests will turn more on health care, immigration, the economy, Kavanaugh, the recent terror attacks, or visceral feelings about the 45th president is not entirely clear.

    While the odds are against the Republicans, they probably have a better shot at holding the House than Trump appeared to have two years ago in the Electoral College.”

    The president’s party almost always loses seats in midterms. I don’t expect this to be any different. But I question whether Dems can pull it off, and by what slim margin? I think they’ve done more to lose these races than anyone, including Trump.

    But again, it will be because this is the nature of the beast. It has little to do with Trump.


  19. Oh Ricky…….


    “It won’t be a blue wave, NBC reports today, at least not if early voting is any indication. Thus far, in a record turnout, Republican voters hold the edge by a slim two-point margin in ballots already cast in the midterms. The turnout model thus far looks more similar to 2014 than 2016:

    Six days out from Election Day, over 24 million votes have been counted as early or absentee, a number that exceeds the total nationwide early vote from 2014.

    As of Wednesday, 24,024,621 million early and absentee ballots have been counted nationwide in all states with early voting activity. …

    As of Wednesday, 43 percent of early voters are Republican and 41 percent are Democrats. At this point in 2016, 43 percent of early voters were Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans.”

    It’s a narrower lead than in 2014, but it’s still a lead. It cuts against the expectation of an oversized Democratic turnout that led to the “blue wave” predictions for most of this cycle. It also calls into question whether the turnout models used by pollsters will accurately reflect the final results — assuming that Democrats don’t turn on the afterburners on Election Day, anyway. Pollsters largely missed the mark on turnout models in 2016, and it’s very possible they’ve failed to learn their lesson in time for this election.”

    And given the recent track record of said “experts” like Silver, I’d say it makes their most recent products look to be highly suspect.


  20. I will be surprised if the House does not pick up a seat or two or more. Some people are not eager to advertise their support.

    Debra. ;–)


  21. I should use the fear mongering of the caravan as an example of hyperbole in my writing lessons. Now there are three, they have guns, they have typhus, small pox, etc., there are middle easterns in it and the list goes on. So far no shots have fired, no disease outbreak, no middle easterns cited.

    But sure send more troops to the border then there are migrants. You could send double but it won’t change the simple fact; a migrant can legally walk up to a US border post and claim refugee status. Now during the processing of the claim, the migrant will need to prove Mexico wasn’t a safe place but all they will need to do is cite a few of Trump’s speeches.


  22. Of the early voting, 43% are Republican and 41% Democrats. That’s 86%, which means 14% are independent who will determine the winner. The other question are we sure people voted accordingly to their registration. Anecdotally I know my American family are registered Republicans but voted Democrat in 2016.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. The first qualification of experts such as Silver is the ability to read poll questions and read descriptions of those being polled. I would have thought that most Americans could accomplish that feat, but I have been overestimating large segments of our population for the last 3+ years.

    HRW, At the end of the last caravan, either 11 or 12 people were arrested at the border and claimed refugee status. It is a true luxury to be able to dispatch thousands of troops to meet such a “threat”.


  24. @3:59 Most “lazy” people are now home from work and available to help Trumpkins with their reading comprehension.

    “Republican Members of Congress” is not the same group as “Members of Congress”.


  25. There are a lot of voters who are stepping away from both parties, either to go with the “other” one or to be independent and vote as they will. I think of my neighbors, life-long Democrats, strong union supporters, who told me in a near-whisper — said they didn’t dare tell to many people — of their intent to vote for Trump in 2016.

    Liked by 1 person

  26. Once the nerdy experts learn basic reading comprehension and math and become proficient at statistical analysis, they can begin to create models:


  27. In case that FB link didn’t work for some:


    God Condemns Washington DC After Being Unable To Find Ten Righteous People There


    “… WASHINGTON, D.C.—The city of Washington has declared a state of emergency after the Almighty condemned the city, being unable to find ten righteous people anywhere near the nation’s capital. …

    Senator Ben Sasse attempted to intercede for the city after the Lord revealed his plans to smite the home of the federal government, begging the Lord to spare the city if even fifty righteous could be found among the “wretched hive of scum and villainy.” …

    Liked by 1 person

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