This article in World explains more of what is going on with the Palestinians of Gaza. The portion I am sharing is only one aspect of what the article is about:
~ “Al-Sharif said she heard many stories about Hamas arresting and even killing people for senseless reasons, and eventually her perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict shifted: “I don’t see a problem with Israel as much as I see a problem with Hamas. As a society, as a community, as a government, we have the problem,” al-Sharif told me.
“We discovered it’s literally like ISIS. They try to force people to wear clothes in a certain way. Men can’t shave in a certain way,” she added.
She blames the media, particularly Al Jazeera, for amplifying pro-Hamas voices and ignoring the hardships of average Palestinians in Gaza. “Many people would say to me, ‘Manar, remember the good days when Israel was controlling us?’” They recalled the benefits of having closer ties with Israel: travel privileges and work permits, both severely curtailed after Hamas took over and committed blood and treasure to Israel’s extermination instead of Palestinian welfare.
The residents of Gaza protested but made little headway. In 2017, around 10,000 people took to the streets, yelling slogans against then-Hamas leader Haniyeh. Protesters blamed Hamas, in addition to the West Bank’s Fatah party, for the lack of electricity, available then for only six to eight hours a day, according to al-Sharif.
According to both Israeli and Palestinian sources, Hamas spent $100 million to $250 million a year on its military and built an army 40,000 strong. An estimated $40 million of its military budget went to building a network of underground tunnels used for weapons smuggling and attacks against Israel.
Frustration in Gaza continued to grow as Hamas pursued war at the expense of the people. A pattern developed: Hamas fired rockets, Israel retaliated, Palestinian civilians suffered, and Hamas failed to deliver on promises to rebuild. Then it would fire another round of rockets to pursue its reckless dream of Israeli extermination, and the cycle repeated.
Thousands of Palestinians took to the streets in Gaza again in 2019 chanting, “We want to live.” Human Rights Watch reported more than 1,000 arbitrary arrests, including 17 local journalists. But few Western media outlets reported the details of Hamas’ brutal crackdown against peaceful Palestinian protesters or the terrorist group’s mismanagement of international aid.” ~
A little while after seeing a post on Facebook about some supposed statistics, I came across this one shared by a different friend. I don’t know if you can access this article (I can’t; it’s behind a paywall), but I am copying the part my friend shared:
“A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory”
~ “Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory …
Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 62% chance of winning on Thursday, while Harris’s chances were 38%. …
But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts. …
The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found.
The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month. …
Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris. …
“If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it,” Sethi said.” ~
Kizzie, thanks for the WorldMag article. Most of their stuff is behind a paywall for me.
It’s really disturbing that we should be told so little about the people of Gaza. Just reading available mainstream articles would not inform us of the views of so many of the people living there because they are mostly presented as pro-Hamas. It would be frightening to live as a minority (either Christian or Muslim) in a terrorist state.
The article about betting on the election is also of interest. I have been a little concerned about headlines here and there trying to predict a Trump landslide. It is dangerous to set those kind of expectations. I expect it to be very close.
The article about Gaza was enlightening, Kizzie. Thanks.
I guess I was tired from reading the first or did not have as much interest in the article about the betting on Trump’s win. The first article was about what’s happened, the second is about speculation on what’s gonna happen although based on how someone has actually betted. I prefer the news of accurate reporting of first hand stories. I guess I don’t get the point of the second article.
My guess is that people doing that betting want people to invest/bet because they know something already about what will turn the election. They want a lot of losers so they can make a lot of money? Moral is, don’t invest! We never have even bought a lottery ticket, lol
The poster on the Tangle (bipartisan) site yesterday gave his prediction (with this in precursor:
1) Political prognostication is a fool’s errand, and it often sets you up for failure.
2) I’ll keep attempting to make predictions, because they are an engaging way to learn about politics, hold myself accountable for my views, and make me think critically about trends I’m perceiving.
~ ” … a few important caveats: First, these are not things I wish or want to happen, or predictions based on what I think should happen. These are predictions I’m sharing based simply on the data and my analysis of the trends, combined with some gut instincts, reporting from the ground, and experience covering several past elections.
Second, these predictions represent my opinion only — not the views of my editors, my staff, or Tangle as an organization. Indeed, members of our team actually disagree with me — in some cases quite strongly — about some of the trends and predictions I’m laying out here in today’s newsletter.
And third, of course, all the caveats still apply: A lot can happen in two or three weeks, and I reserve the right to change my mind before election day. We’ll refer back to these predictions in our final weeks of coverage, and revisit them once the dust has settled.
So, with the throat-clearing out of the way, let’s get to it.
Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.
(His PA prediction is based on Harris’ strong ground game in that state, but he also noted a Politico story from yesterday that suggests the campaign is running into problems there, recommending his readers also check that out.)
I haven’t done any kind of deep dive into polling so I “know” nothing. But I have had the same “gut” feeling recently, based mostly on the impression that Harris needed to catch fire and just hasn’t managed to do that.
“Dave Ramsey endorses Donald Trump on his radio show, says listeners can leave if they’re upset with him, but they can’t cancel him because he owns the show”
Piece shared by a friend (on voting in this particular year); author is young, a believer, and notes that her parents (also believers) cast their first vote for president for Ronald Reagan:
~ … For Christian voters, the past eight years have been an extended process of trying to figure out what’s replaced it (the Reagan version of her parents’ conservatism) and what to do now. Four distinct approaches have emerged.
The first approach is to vote enthusiastically for Trump, believing not merely that he’s better than the alternative but that he is in himself a great candidate. Some people have succeeded in convincing themselves that he’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan, either by giving Trump more credit than he deserves or by giving Reagan less. (The lamest variation on the latter is “Reagan was divorced too,” when it’s widely known that his first wife left him because she was an actress who didn’t want to be married to a politician.) I’m perplexed by these people, and yet I also love some of them, because some of them are my friends. My only wish is that when this is all over, they will eventually get a candidate who deserves them.
The opposite approach is to make not voting for Trump into your personal brand, to such an obsessive and all-consuming extent that you will literally vote Democrat to stop Trump from winning. This has been the trajectory of erstwhile conservative pundit David French, who is now enthusiastically endorsing Kamala Harris. Other “Evangelicals for Harris” have announced themselves in similarly grating, sanctimonious fashion. They’re very popular among the niche set who like that sort of thing.
The third approach is to vote for Trump as a purely transactional matter, under no delusions about his character or lack thereof, simply because the Democrats are still so much worse on a range of issues. As Rod Dreher has recently argued, he’s not Kamala, and that’s good enough. If we get someone better someday, great, but until then, he’ll have to do. The only alternative is not voting at all, or casting a protest vote, and for Rod this is unacceptable.
However, that fourth approach is my own. Indeed, it’s been my approach ever since I could vote, well before Trump came onto the scene. I’ve always had a couple of simple non-negotiables, not sufficient, but necessary: Is this candidate consistently pro-life, and is this candidate someone I can admire—someone for whom I would want to plant a sign in my yard? Trump wasn’t the first GOP presidential candidate to fail one or both of these tests, and he won’t be the last.
Yes, I understand that it’s 2024, and these questions will sound hopelessly outdated to many people. But what can I say? I am, at heart, an old conservative. Yet I’m increasingly realizing that this is no country for old conservatives. … ~
Janice – The reason I shared that is because some are sharing the manipulated results as legitimate. What got my attention on this is that one Facebook friend of mine shared them as legitimate and shortly after that, another friend shared that article about the manipulation.
Thanks, Kizzie. I guess I am not so interested in the polls in general now. I don’t want to waste my feelings on speculation so that takes away any care I have in knowing if someone is fudging in some manner on the polls.
I guess it comes down to what we value and are willing to fight about. I think you are very concerned in seeing the truth go forth in every instance. I accept it won’t so I’d be highly selective in what to spend time on straightening out. I don’t mean to sound critical of you and your choice to spend your time like this. We all have our priorities. I would love if everything could be done in truth, but we aren’t in the Garden of Eden (it even failed there). I do wish for the truth you seek to always be present. Uncovering the untruths won’t set it straight though. May the force be with you in your quest!
Polls are data driving – but there’s still a certain amount of the “roll of the dice” and should never be seen as hard-and-fast “predictions” (and they’re not meant to be that).
I remember taking a political statistics class in college (I remember very little, but do recall the research that goes into polling — and that was many years ago).
I don’t do deep dives into them but will check them out now and again, out of curiosity and know that things can change.
But Kizzie’s post wasn’t about polling or a poll (which aren’t designed to predict, just to analyze current data); it was about “Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market” and how it might be getting played for partisan purposes.
I posted a news story yesterday, I believe, about shadowy groups also going into neighborhoods to canvas and persuade people to vote one way or another (all part of a paid effort — and it’s being seen on “both” sides of this presidential race).
They plan on cheating for the win and put Trump in jail ….
Biden is now openly hoping President Trump — his former top rival before he kicked Biden’s ass so bad he dropped out in disgrace — is jailed after the corrupt Democrat-led witch hunt: “He got the sentence kicked back, but I want to watch that sentence.”
This is our fearless leader ladies and gents!!!
Biden is so far gone, he can’t even insult President Trump without botching it: “She beat Trump so badly in the debate, he’s scared to death to beat her again!”
Some people do find polls and tactical elements of the elections interesting. And that’s a good thing or it would be very difficult to get a candidate elected. I usually have little interest in those elements; I’m an issues person. However, the manipulation of public expectations whether it’s through polls or betting or fiction based “news” headlines does make me concerned. We know from the various events of 2020 that people can act up on the basis of faulty expectations. I feel like the atmosphere is ripe for misbehavior regardless of who wins in November.
Polls are interesting only to see potential trends – and there are many polls, one should never rely on one (so the aggragated numbers are maybe more helpful as those take numerous polls and put them in a graph). But despite the science that is involved, it’s all slippery to some degree.
For now, most of the polls appear to be pretty consistent (and very close, each candidate edging up or down only marginally) so it would appear voter opinions now are pretty well set. Doesn’t mean there won’t be some surprises come election night.
DJ, I haven’t followed the polls closely in this race. What I have seen shows margins of maybe 1-3% between Trump and Harris. But don’t most polls have margins of error from 3-5%?
Janice – I am not overly concerned with polls. They are mildly interesting when they pop up on my radar, but I don’t go looking for them, as I know that they fluctuate as time goes on.
What stood out to me about the piece I shared was that there seems to be a purpose behind the manipulation. Some are already claiming that the election will be stolen, and these false poll numbers can be used to “prove” the allegation.
Yeah, most in the margin of error. I do hope, whichever way it goes, it will be a strong enough margin that we won’t have to go through a lot of angst in the aftermath.
Anyone remember the Bush-Gore election night? We all were working into the wee hours (until 2+ a.m.) in our old newsroom back then – when I left for a late “dinner” hour, Gore had been declared the winner.
When I got back, it was Bush.
Crazy election with hanging chads and all the other drama.
Yeah, I remember that election. I was living in Chicago, had to be at work at 8:00 a.m., and up to that time I’d always stayed up until the winner was declared, but it was getting late and there was a lot of back-and-forth. My housemate was heading to bed, and I told her I’d leave her a note telling her who had won. I think it was 2:00 a.m. or so and a weary reporter said something like, “We may not even know the winner in the morning!” At that point I scribbled a note and went to bed.
Later that month my stepfather died–the day before Thanksgiving. I got three days of paid leave for the death of a parent or stepparent and we got two days off for Thanksgiving, so I flew to Georgia on Thanksgiving Day (getting me cheap tickets even though they were purchased the day before, and a nearly empty airport) and stayed through Wednesday, being able to be there for a week to go to all the funeral planning and then just sit around the house with Mom, to be “present.” (That was the only Thanksgiving I had with my mom after I moved to Chicago for college, 14 Thanksgivings before she died but that was the only one I was with her. I did see her for Christmas three or four times.)
The week I was in Georgia Mom had the TV on nearly nonstop, and nearly all of it was parsing out the election counting. I don’t remember exactly when it was all decided, but I know from that experience that it hadn’t been finalized within a week after Thanksgiving!
“I got a bunch of nutty stories. SpaceX had to do this study to see if Starship would hit a shark. And I’m like… it’s a big ocean. There are a lot of sharks! It’s not impossible, but it’s very unlikely. So we said, ‘Fine, we’ll do the analysis. Can you give us the shark data?’ They were like, ‘No, we can’t give you the shark data.’
Well, then, okay, we’re in a bit of a quandary. How do we solve this shark probability issue? They said, ‘Well, we could give it to our western division, but we don’t trust them.’ I’m like, ‘Am I in a comedy sketch here?!’
Eventually, we got the data and could run the analysis to say, ‘Yeah, the sharks are going to be fine.’ But they wouldn’t let us proceed with the launch until we did this crazy shark analysis.
Then we thought, ‘Okay, now we’re done.’ But then they said, ‘What about whales?’
When you look at a picture of the Pacific, what percent of the surface area do you see as whale? If Starship did hit a whale, honestly, it’s like the whale had it coming, cause the odds are… so low. It’s like Final Destination: Whale Edition.
And then they said, ‘What if the rocket goes underwater, then explodes, and the whales have hearing damage?’ This is real!”
—–
And yet these same people have no problem with windmills killing millions of birds a year, and offshore windmill construction projects destroying the sonar of, and causing numerous whale deaths. It’s idiocy in the highest degree.
“Biden and Blinken cut a deal with the Mexican government to temporarily lower border crossings before the election and 400,000 people are waiting by Guatemala until after the election to come in.
Todd Bensimon is down there now interviewing people.”
“The U.S. intelligence community spied on Israeli Air Force bases this week with imaging satellites and wiretaps, and then the top secret intelligence reports — from two separate intelligence agencies — were immediately leaked to the press and on a pro-Iran Telegram channel.
This is what you do to your very worst enemies. Not to your allies. Not to your friends. This is a massive security and intelligence failure, and an unforgivable breach of trust by the United States and the Biden-Harris administration.”
“We don’t yet know how this info was leaked or who did it. But what we do know is that there are Iran sympathizers inside the Biden-Harris Admin who would like nothing more than to stymie Israeli efforts to strike the Iranian regime.”
“A US intelligence source tells RedState that the Top Secret documents leaked were leaked from the Pentagon’s office of low intensity conflict/special operations – which is where suspected Iranian spy Ariane Tabatabai works with Christopher Maier”
“2021. Elizabeth Warren calls Elon Musk a freeloader and falsely claims that he pays no taxes. A week later it was revealed that Elon would be paying over $11 billion in taxes for the year.
Just another example of the biggest proponents of censorship being the biggest liars.”
Someone referred to Trump as the second coming of Reagan – rhetorical excess I’m sure but I’ve always seen him as a reaction to Reagan. After the flying low in the 70s, Reagan reasserted America into the world in the 80s. Trump seems to want to retreat into the isolationism of between the wars – hence America First. Economically, Reagan brought neo-con/neoliberal/Austrian economics to the mainstream so that it is now the consensus of all political parties. The name depends on where you live. Although Trump endorses the “trickle down” aspect of tax cuts, I suspect its to keep his friends happy not that he actually thinks it will spur growth or trickle down. However, the free trade aspect of Reagan policy is definitely not supported by Trump. I suspect he doesn’t really understand economics and tariffs specifically, Trump’s economic policy is also based in the late 20s and early 30s where tariffs actually made the depression worse. Harris on the other hand follows the same path as Reagan in terms of economics. I actually think tariffs have a place but you need to know what you are doing.
A few weeks ago I read an interesting interview with two pollsters, one who worked for Obama and another who worked for Bush Jr. They had very little respect for most pollsters today. They both stated in their own experience only the network polls matched their internal polling. They had very little respect for the Wall Street Journal and CNN polls. I had to agree with them. Then there are polling companies that are obviously biased Rasmussen and Trafalgar (R) and Morning Consult (D). The aggregators then make the mistake of including all polls in their mix. Its supposed to even out in the mix but its too close this time.
The only guaranteed prediction of this election is Harris will win the popular vote. If we go with trends, polls, history etc, Harris will win the electoral college with Penn being the decider. However, it’s close enough to suggest Harris or Trump will win all the battleground states. Harris does have an issue in Michigan — will Arab Americans vote for her? That may create problems for her.
Read/Listened to an interesting book while travelling this summer The Hundred Years War on Palestine. It takes the perspective that the establishment of Israel was a settler/colonial enterprise that ignored the original inhabitants. Extremely interesting.
Its take on the Oslo peace accords was also interesting and something I heard from Palestinian groups before. Basically, it sees the PLO betraying the people in order to return home. Hamas emerged then as an alternative as the PLO was viewed as corrupt and collaborating with the Israelis in setting up travel restrictions etc.
Not surprised the US is spying on Israel. Israel also spies on the US. They may be friends but they also have conflicting interests at times.
I often wonder how important endorsements are. Cheney endorsed Harris — is that a good thing for her? Musk endorsed Trump — do working class Trump supporters like this? Do I care what a boxer thinks? Do people not trust their own intelligence?
Reminds me — that post on Musk again indicates he’s a salesman/promoter not a thinker. Of course you have to provide your own data and it’s not hard to find. Pay the fee to access academic search engines and you will get more data than you need on sharks. And yes it’s important to do environmental assessments of your activity. When you apply for a housing permit, you provide the data and the information for the environment or any other impact. Same for a space program.
As for windmills — the EU requires far more environmental impact studies than the US and nothing has emerged to suggest windmills are a problem.
The twitter story about Biden cutting a deal with Mexico is weird. First its posted by Johnny Midnight. But then there’s some common sense issues. Mexico has the ability to keep 400,000 people waiting in Guatemala? If so, maybe Mexico should tell the US how to keep a secure border? If Biden-Blinken can strike this type of deal, shouldn’t the US reelect Biden? Why couldn’t Trump do this in the four years he was president?
Of course Harris is giving the same speech. If she gave different speeches to different crowds, she’d be accused of being inconsistent and worse pandering. Trump too gives the same speech — comedians have made a living due to his predictability and sameness.
Mocking Jimmy Carter — really? is that how low the Republicans are willing to go?
But that raises a broader issue – are we going to give mental aptitude tests before people are allowed to vote. Are we going to disqualify people on the basis of senility or IQ?
I’m sure Carter is mentally fine and able and I’m sure whoever mailed his ballot for him made sure to vote for the party of Carter’s preference ie Harris.
Discussion of tariffs during a port news conference I covered recently featured exec of key national retail assn who pointed out that tariffs – when used as short-term tools, to strategically affect policy — are helpful and there is a place for that.
Long-term, ongoing tariffs, however, simply tax importers (not the foreign countries) and will get passed on to consumers in higher prices for imported goods.
Saw a news clip of Trump’s French-fry training today — it gave me the biggest craving for McDonald’s fries. Snacked on a bag of (‘healthy’) popcorn from Sprouts to help kill the urge.
“ELON MUSK: “We need to have empathy that is deep, not shallow. Shallow empty is caring about criminals, deep empathy is caring about the victims of criminals. Why do we have repeat violent offenders released on the street? How can America be the greatest country in the world and we don’t have safe streets?
My Mom was telling me three or four of her friends were assaulted in New York. Was anyone arrested? No. They didn’t even try. People deserve to have safe cities, and secure borders,”
Wandering Views 
This article in World explains more of what is going on with the Palestinians of Gaza. The portion I am sharing is only one aspect of what the article is about:
~ “Al-Sharif said she heard many stories about Hamas arresting and even killing people for senseless reasons, and eventually her perspective on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict shifted: “I don’t see a problem with Israel as much as I see a problem with Hamas. As a society, as a community, as a government, we have the problem,” al-Sharif told me.
“We discovered it’s literally like ISIS. They try to force people to wear clothes in a certain way. Men can’t shave in a certain way,” she added.
She blames the media, particularly Al Jazeera, for amplifying pro-Hamas voices and ignoring the hardships of average Palestinians in Gaza. “Many people would say to me, ‘Manar, remember the good days when Israel was controlling us?’” They recalled the benefits of having closer ties with Israel: travel privileges and work permits, both severely curtailed after Hamas took over and committed blood and treasure to Israel’s extermination instead of Palestinian welfare.
The residents of Gaza protested but made little headway. In 2017, around 10,000 people took to the streets, yelling slogans against then-Hamas leader Haniyeh. Protesters blamed Hamas, in addition to the West Bank’s Fatah party, for the lack of electricity, available then for only six to eight hours a day, according to al-Sharif.
According to both Israeli and Palestinian sources, Hamas spent $100 million to $250 million a year on its military and built an army 40,000 strong. An estimated $40 million of its military budget went to building a network of underground tunnels used for weapons smuggling and attacks against Israel.
Frustration in Gaza continued to grow as Hamas pursued war at the expense of the people. A pattern developed: Hamas fired rockets, Israel retaliated, Palestinian civilians suffered, and Hamas failed to deliver on promises to rebuild. Then it would fire another round of rockets to pursue its reckless dream of Israeli extermination, and the cycle repeated.
Thousands of Palestinians took to the streets in Gaza again in 2019 chanting, “We want to live.” Human Rights Watch reported more than 1,000 arbitrary arrests, including 17 local journalists. But few Western media outlets reported the details of Hamas’ brutal crackdown against peaceful Palestinian protesters or the terrorist group’s mismanagement of international aid.” ~
https://wng.org/articles/gazas-day-after-1724809925
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A little while after seeing a post on Facebook about some supposed statistics, I came across this one shared by a different friend. I don’t know if you can access this article (I can’t; it’s behind a paywall), but I am copying the part my friend shared:
“A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market
Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory”
~ “Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory …
Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 62% chance of winning on Thursday, while Harris’s chances were 38%. …
But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts. …
The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found.
The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month. …
Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris. …
“If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it,” Sethi said.” ~
https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71?fbclid=IwY2xjawGAoGJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHSSqfRyB-waGvNIWyd62rg1pDDfKbfHfjpH1Yp0rto96pm2RRwiu87xjiA_aem_EzVfQwFiRUnyvd3n-t_1fQ
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Kizzie, thanks for the WorldMag article. Most of their stuff is behind a paywall for me.
It’s really disturbing that we should be told so little about the people of Gaza. Just reading available mainstream articles would not inform us of the views of so many of the people living there because they are mostly presented as pro-Hamas. It would be frightening to live as a minority (either Christian or Muslim) in a terrorist state.
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The article about betting on the election is also of interest. I have been a little concerned about headlines here and there trying to predict a Trump landslide. It is dangerous to set those kind of expectations. I expect it to be very close.
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The article about Gaza was enlightening, Kizzie. Thanks.
I guess I was tired from reading the first or did not have as much interest in the article about the betting on Trump’s win. The first article was about what’s happened, the second is about speculation on what’s gonna happen although based on how someone has actually betted. I prefer the news of accurate reporting of first hand stories. I guess I don’t get the point of the second article.
My guess is that people doing that betting want people to invest/bet because they know something already about what will turn the election. They want a lot of losers so they can make a lot of money? Moral is, don’t invest! We never have even bought a lottery ticket, lol
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The poster on the Tangle (bipartisan) site yesterday gave his prediction (with this in precursor:
1) Political prognostication is a fool’s errand, and it often sets you up for failure.
2) I’ll keep attempting to make predictions, because they are an engaging way to learn about politics, hold myself accountable for my views, and make me think critically about trends I’m perceiving.
~ ” … a few important caveats: First, these are not things I wish or want to happen, or predictions based on what I think should happen. These are predictions I’m sharing based simply on the data and my analysis of the trends, combined with some gut instincts, reporting from the ground, and experience covering several past elections.
Second, these predictions represent my opinion only — not the views of my editors, my staff, or Tangle as an organization. Indeed, members of our team actually disagree with me — in some cases quite strongly — about some of the trends and predictions I’m laying out here in today’s newsletter.
And third, of course, all the caveats still apply: A lot can happen in two or three weeks, and I reserve the right to change my mind before election day. We’ll refer back to these predictions in our final weeks of coverage, and revisit them once the dust has settled.
So, with the throat-clearing out of the way, let’s get to it.
Kamala Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and also lose the election.
(His PA prediction is based on Harris’ strong ground game in that state, but he also noted a Politico story from yesterday that suggests the campaign is running into problems there, recommending his readers also check that out.)
I haven’t done any kind of deep dive into polling so I “know” nothing. But I have had the same “gut” feeling recently, based mostly on the impression that Harris needed to catch fire and just hasn’t managed to do that.
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The state predictions are perhaps dicey from what I’ve read.
“We’ll see” — as my parents would always tell me about so many things. lol
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“Kamala Harris exposes her vile hatred toward Christians once again by ridiculing a rallygoer for invoking the name of God.
“JESUS IS LORD!”
KAMALA: “You are at the wrong rally.””
https://x.com/its_The_Dr/status/1847379721228804131?t=3dCeliGaIXSvFS5gbtOKdQ&s=19
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Athos is what a political prisoner looks like. Election interference too, as he’s been a Trump campaign adviser.
https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1847361641635315981?t=QAID8Jl4wDc70bbSH2ZvAQ&s=19
“Bannon Prison Statement – ‘Biden-Harris Are Illegally Holding Me Past My Release Date.'”
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Trump endorsements continue to roll in. Everyone from Farrakhan to Dave Ramsey.
Yes, that Dave Ramsey. 🙂
https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1847342988877574292?t=w-7YPxbg4JOUQu1D8SYU2g&s=19
“Dave Ramsey endorses Donald Trump on his radio show, says listeners can leave if they’re upset with him, but they can’t cancel him because he owns the show”
https://x.com/its_The_Dr/status/1847304416606474294?t=DhFm0zDsoEzl4qERLcKZUw&s=19
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Piece shared by a friend (on voting in this particular year); author is young, a believer, and notes that her parents (also believers) cast their first vote for president for Ronald Reagan:
~ … For Christian voters, the past eight years have been an extended process of trying to figure out what’s replaced it (the Reagan version of her parents’ conservatism) and what to do now. Four distinct approaches have emerged.
The first approach is to vote enthusiastically for Trump, believing not merely that he’s better than the alternative but that he is in himself a great candidate. Some people have succeeded in convincing themselves that he’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan, either by giving Trump more credit than he deserves or by giving Reagan less. (The lamest variation on the latter is “Reagan was divorced too,” when it’s widely known that his first wife left him because she was an actress who didn’t want to be married to a politician.) I’m perplexed by these people, and yet I also love some of them, because some of them are my friends. My only wish is that when this is all over, they will eventually get a candidate who deserves them.
The opposite approach is to make not voting for Trump into your personal brand, to such an obsessive and all-consuming extent that you will literally vote Democrat to stop Trump from winning. This has been the trajectory of erstwhile conservative pundit David French, who is now enthusiastically endorsing Kamala Harris. Other “Evangelicals for Harris” have announced themselves in similarly grating, sanctimonious fashion. They’re very popular among the niche set who like that sort of thing.
The third approach is to vote for Trump as a purely transactional matter, under no delusions about his character or lack thereof, simply because the Democrats are still so much worse on a range of issues. As Rod Dreher has recently argued, he’s not Kamala, and that’s good enough. If we get someone better someday, great, but until then, he’ll have to do. The only alternative is not voting at all, or casting a protest vote, and for Rod this is unacceptable.
However, that fourth approach is my own. Indeed, it’s been my approach ever since I could vote, well before Trump came onto the scene. I’ve always had a couple of simple non-negotiables, not sufficient, but necessary: Is this candidate consistently pro-life, and is this candidate someone I can admire—someone for whom I would want to plant a sign in my yard? Trump wasn’t the first GOP presidential candidate to fail one or both of these tests, and he won’t be the last.
Yes, I understand that it’s 2024, and these questions will sound hopelessly outdated to many people. But what can I say? I am, at heart, an old conservative. Yet I’m increasingly realizing that this is no country for old conservatives. … ~
https://www.furtherup.net/p/no-country-for-old-conservatives?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0-RzpUZSU1TcT0u3kJzYNh5t2vW8eZoT-iMFA3TRyJzcHMPFykAZvpi34_aem_5zlQP5x_KafSK-jL7iNlNw
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(ps: everyone’s “young” to me anymore 🙂 )
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Janice – The reason I shared that is because some are sharing the manipulated results as legitimate. What got my attention on this is that one Facebook friend of mine shared them as legitimate and shortly after that, another friend shared that article about the manipulation.
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The endorsement of 49 of 67 County Sheriffs in battleground PA.
https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1847673439684890675?t=Bp1k6FbpDM3F6vAdGCb2zA&s=19
And The Hitman, which is huge in Michigan.
https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1847443021572247844?t=h1EIJ_yrPSs3YZapgBbv2A&s=19
“Boxing Hall of Famer Tommy Hearns, whose ring name was “Motor City Cobra” because he grew up in Detroit, Michigan just endorsed Trump
All the Detroit locals in the crowd knew him and chanted his name.
He was so humble and nice to Trump. How do the greatest fighters always turn out to be such kind humans? It also looks like he and Trump go way back.”
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Thanks, Kizzie. I guess I am not so interested in the polls in general now. I don’t want to waste my feelings on speculation so that takes away any care I have in knowing if someone is fudging in some manner on the polls.
I guess it comes down to what we value and are willing to fight about. I think you are very concerned in seeing the truth go forth in every instance. I accept it won’t so I’d be highly selective in what to spend time on straightening out. I don’t mean to sound critical of you and your choice to spend your time like this. We all have our priorities. I would love if everything could be done in truth, but we aren’t in the Garden of Eden (it even failed there). I do wish for the truth you seek to always be present. Uncovering the untruths won’t set it straight though. May the force be with you in your quest!
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Polls are data driving – but there’s still a certain amount of the “roll of the dice” and should never be seen as hard-and-fast “predictions” (and they’re not meant to be that).
I remember taking a political statistics class in college (I remember very little, but do recall the research that goes into polling — and that was many years ago).
I don’t do deep dives into them but will check them out now and again, out of curiosity and know that things can change.
But Kizzie’s post wasn’t about polling or a poll (which aren’t designed to predict, just to analyze current data); it was about “Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market” and how it might be getting played for partisan purposes.
I posted a news story yesterday, I believe, about shadowy groups also going into neighborhoods to canvas and persuade people to vote one way or another (all part of a paid effort — and it’s being seen on “both” sides of this presidential race).
‘Tis the season for shenanigans.
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And uncovering untruths can at least make us wiser?
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They plan on cheating for the win and put Trump in jail ….
Biden is now openly hoping President Trump — his former top rival before he kicked Biden’s ass so bad he dropped out in disgrace — is jailed after the corrupt Democrat-led witch hunt: “He got the sentence kicked back, but I want to watch that sentence.”
This is our fearless leader ladies and gents!!!
Biden is so far gone, he can’t even insult President Trump without botching it: “She beat Trump so badly in the debate, he’s scared to death to beat her again!”
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Some people do find polls and tactical elements of the elections interesting. And that’s a good thing or it would be very difficult to get a candidate elected. I usually have little interest in those elements; I’m an issues person. However, the manipulation of public expectations whether it’s through polls or betting or fiction based “news” headlines does make me concerned. We know from the various events of 2020 that people can act up on the basis of faulty expectations. I feel like the atmosphere is ripe for misbehavior regardless of who wins in November.
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That should have read “data-driven” @3:08
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Polls are interesting only to see potential trends – and there are many polls, one should never rely on one (so the aggragated numbers are maybe more helpful as those take numerous polls and put them in a graph). But despite the science that is involved, it’s all slippery to some degree.
For now, most of the polls appear to be pretty consistent (and very close, each candidate edging up or down only marginally) so it would appear voter opinions now are pretty well set. Doesn’t mean there won’t be some surprises come election night.
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DJ, I haven’t followed the polls closely in this race. What I have seen shows margins of maybe 1-3% between Trump and Harris. But don’t most polls have margins of error from 3-5%?
If so, it looks like a toss-uo to me .
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*toss-up
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Janice – I am not overly concerned with polls. They are mildly interesting when they pop up on my radar, but I don’t go looking for them, as I know that they fluctuate as time goes on.
What stood out to me about the piece I shared was that there seems to be a purpose behind the manipulation. Some are already claiming that the election will be stolen, and these false poll numbers can be used to “prove” the allegation.
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Yeah, most in the margin of error. I do hope, whichever way it goes, it will be a strong enough margin that we won’t have to go through a lot of angst in the aftermath.
Anyone remember the Bush-Gore election night? We all were working into the wee hours (until 2+ a.m.) in our old newsroom back then – when I left for a late “dinner” hour, Gore had been declared the winner.
When I got back, it was Bush.
Crazy election with hanging chads and all the other drama.
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Yeah, I remember that election. I was living in Chicago, had to be at work at 8:00 a.m., and up to that time I’d always stayed up until the winner was declared, but it was getting late and there was a lot of back-and-forth. My housemate was heading to bed, and I told her I’d leave her a note telling her who had won. I think it was 2:00 a.m. or so and a weary reporter said something like, “We may not even know the winner in the morning!” At that point I scribbled a note and went to bed.
Later that month my stepfather died–the day before Thanksgiving. I got three days of paid leave for the death of a parent or stepparent and we got two days off for Thanksgiving, so I flew to Georgia on Thanksgiving Day (getting me cheap tickets even though they were purchased the day before, and a nearly empty airport) and stayed through Wednesday, being able to be there for a week to go to all the funeral planning and then just sit around the house with Mom, to be “present.” (That was the only Thanksgiving I had with my mom after I moved to Chicago for college, 14 Thanksgivings before she died but that was the only one I was with her. I did see her for Christmas three or four times.)
The week I was in Georgia Mom had the TV on nearly nonstop, and nearly all of it was parsing out the election counting. I don’t remember exactly when it was all decided, but I know from that experience that it hadn’t been finalized within a week after Thanksgiving!
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Cheryl, yes, I do remember it went on for so long, I was thinking days, but you are saying weeks (which I don’t doubt).
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Not sure, but I think that it wasn’t until early December that we knew who our next president would be.
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I looked it up. The Supreme Court ruled in Bush v Gore on December 12, ending the Florida recount 5 weeks after Election Day.
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On my birthday! A nice birthday president (present).
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Our govt is run by unserious activists.
https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1847846282410258876?t=RcGnjAMHfvNIIwmfKLojcQ&s=19
“Elon Musk tonight on overregulation:
“I got a bunch of nutty stories. SpaceX had to do this study to see if Starship would hit a shark. And I’m like… it’s a big ocean. There are a lot of sharks! It’s not impossible, but it’s very unlikely. So we said, ‘Fine, we’ll do the analysis. Can you give us the shark data?’ They were like, ‘No, we can’t give you the shark data.’
Well, then, okay, we’re in a bit of a quandary. How do we solve this shark probability issue? They said, ‘Well, we could give it to our western division, but we don’t trust them.’ I’m like, ‘Am I in a comedy sketch here?!’
Eventually, we got the data and could run the analysis to say, ‘Yeah, the sharks are going to be fine.’ But they wouldn’t let us proceed with the launch until we did this crazy shark analysis.
Then we thought, ‘Okay, now we’re done.’ But then they said, ‘What about whales?’
When you look at a picture of the Pacific, what percent of the surface area do you see as whale? If Starship did hit a whale, honestly, it’s like the whale had it coming, cause the odds are… so low. It’s like Final Destination: Whale Edition.
And then they said, ‘What if the rocket goes underwater, then explodes, and the whales have hearing damage?’ This is real!”
—–
And yet these same people have no problem with windmills killing millions of birds a year, and offshore windmill construction projects destroying the sonar of, and causing numerous whale deaths. It’s idiocy in the highest degree.
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Disgusting. The invasion will continue and worsen if they are reelected.
https://x.com/its_The_Dr/status/1847828516181569721?t=5Z7OojdmDj3kMQ2lityq8g&s=19
“Biden and Blinken cut a deal with the Mexican government to temporarily lower border crossings before the election and 400,000 people are waiting by Guatemala until after the election to come in.
Todd Bensimon is down there now interviewing people.”
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Originality level. Zero.
If it’s not completely scripted, she’s a disaster.
https://x.com/dom_lucre/status/1847807797766852984?t=nD6eNz6-skWW2OpKYXbIBQ&s=19
“Kamala Harris has been caught giving the same scripted speech multiple times at multiple rallies. This is absolutely insane.”
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Someone needs to go to prison for this treasonous behavior aiding our enemy.
But I guess we can expect this when Islamist infiltrators are given positions of power by Democrats.
https://x.com/BenTelAviv/status/1847792778098426033?t=RcR3AFHlfCjw0l8t_MzzOw&s=19
“The U.S. intelligence community spied on Israeli Air Force bases this week with imaging satellites and wiretaps, and then the top secret intelligence reports — from two separate intelligence agencies — were immediately leaked to the press and on a pro-Iran Telegram channel.
This is what you do to your very worst enemies. Not to your allies. Not to your friends. This is a massive security and intelligence failure, and an unforgivable breach of trust by the United States and the Biden-Harris administration.”
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Their internal polling must be bad. 🙂
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pennsylvania-democrat-bob-casey-runs-an-ad-boasting-he-bucked-biden-and-sided-with-trump/
“Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey Runs an Ad Boasting He ‘Bucked Biden’ and ‘Sided with Trump’”
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Once again the media ignores actual crimes for the benefit of Kamala and Joe.
https://x.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1847851988903743753?t=16FnfgjLNyOmazRDpSLafw&s=19
“Yes, Irangate is very real. It’s like Russiagate but real.”
—-
https://x.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1847744781604020280?t=5QbmlBjoJ1ONR_aoygyiaA&s=19
“We don’t yet know how this info was leaked or who did it. But what we do know is that there are Iran sympathizers inside the Biden-Harris Admin who would like nothing more than to stymie Israeli efforts to strike the Iranian regime.”
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Sinwar died as he lived, like a coward.
Yet the Biden/Harris regime sides with the people who orchestrated these atrocities.
https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1847916288359776329?t=_hhan0KT968zcB97VZrSgA&s=19
“New information reveals that Sinwar, used the 6 hostages as human shields for almost a year in the tunnels, and killed them before fleeing.
He realized their emaciated condition and inability to move would delay his escape.
After months of torture, he decided they were no longer useful and executed them. He never intended to release them in any deal.”
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The Biden/Harris regime has known about these traitors since day one when they placed them in these positions. They own this.
https://x.com/jenvanlaar/status/1847836173252866242?t=q2q2sYXGCPIcTyf_vRVX5g&s=19
“A US intelligence source tells RedState that the Top Secret documents leaked were leaked from the Pentagon’s office of low intensity conflict/special operations – which is where suspected Iranian spy Ariane Tabatabai works with Christopher Maier”
—–
How was she even given a security clearance?
https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2023/10/12/rob-malley-fbi-investigation-iran-n2164917
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But we’re all supposed to believe it was Carter that voted, and not someone else doing it for him.
Sure. 🙄
https://x.com/HeyTammyBruce/status/1847812137772548596?t=f3eMLZoOEGKOzgbtlKkJ6g&s=19
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“2021. Elizabeth Warren calls Elon Musk a freeloader and falsely claims that he pays no taxes. A week later it was revealed that Elon would be paying over $11 billion in taxes for the year.
Just another example of the biggest proponents of censorship being the biggest liars.”
https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1847795600319730028?t=3LBvRbt1cUgAlGQxhD2Y0A&s=19
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Someone referred to Trump as the second coming of Reagan – rhetorical excess I’m sure but I’ve always seen him as a reaction to Reagan. After the flying low in the 70s, Reagan reasserted America into the world in the 80s. Trump seems to want to retreat into the isolationism of between the wars – hence America First. Economically, Reagan brought neo-con/neoliberal/Austrian economics to the mainstream so that it is now the consensus of all political parties. The name depends on where you live. Although Trump endorses the “trickle down” aspect of tax cuts, I suspect its to keep his friends happy not that he actually thinks it will spur growth or trickle down. However, the free trade aspect of Reagan policy is definitely not supported by Trump. I suspect he doesn’t really understand economics and tariffs specifically, Trump’s economic policy is also based in the late 20s and early 30s where tariffs actually made the depression worse. Harris on the other hand follows the same path as Reagan in terms of economics. I actually think tariffs have a place but you need to know what you are doing.
hrw
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A few weeks ago I read an interesting interview with two pollsters, one who worked for Obama and another who worked for Bush Jr. They had very little respect for most pollsters today. They both stated in their own experience only the network polls matched their internal polling. They had very little respect for the Wall Street Journal and CNN polls. I had to agree with them. Then there are polling companies that are obviously biased Rasmussen and Trafalgar (R) and Morning Consult (D). The aggregators then make the mistake of including all polls in their mix. Its supposed to even out in the mix but its too close this time.
The only guaranteed prediction of this election is Harris will win the popular vote. If we go with trends, polls, history etc, Harris will win the electoral college with Penn being the decider. However, it’s close enough to suggest Harris or Trump will win all the battleground states. Harris does have an issue in Michigan — will Arab Americans vote for her? That may create problems for her.
hrw
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Read/Listened to an interesting book while travelling this summer The Hundred Years War on Palestine. It takes the perspective that the establishment of Israel was a settler/colonial enterprise that ignored the original inhabitants. Extremely interesting.
Its take on the Oslo peace accords was also interesting and something I heard from Palestinian groups before. Basically, it sees the PLO betraying the people in order to return home. Hamas emerged then as an alternative as the PLO was viewed as corrupt and collaborating with the Israelis in setting up travel restrictions etc.
Not surprised the US is spying on Israel. Israel also spies on the US. They may be friends but they also have conflicting interests at times.
hrw
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I often wonder how important endorsements are. Cheney endorsed Harris — is that a good thing for her? Musk endorsed Trump — do working class Trump supporters like this? Do I care what a boxer thinks? Do people not trust their own intelligence?
Reminds me — that post on Musk again indicates he’s a salesman/promoter not a thinker. Of course you have to provide your own data and it’s not hard to find. Pay the fee to access academic search engines and you will get more data than you need on sharks. And yes it’s important to do environmental assessments of your activity. When you apply for a housing permit, you provide the data and the information for the environment or any other impact. Same for a space program.
As for windmills — the EU requires far more environmental impact studies than the US and nothing has emerged to suggest windmills are a problem.
hrw
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The twitter story about Biden cutting a deal with Mexico is weird. First its posted by Johnny Midnight. But then there’s some common sense issues. Mexico has the ability to keep 400,000 people waiting in Guatemala? If so, maybe Mexico should tell the US how to keep a secure border? If Biden-Blinken can strike this type of deal, shouldn’t the US reelect Biden? Why couldn’t Trump do this in the four years he was president?
hrw
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Of course Harris is giving the same speech. If she gave different speeches to different crowds, she’d be accused of being inconsistent and worse pandering. Trump too gives the same speech — comedians have made a living due to his predictability and sameness.
Mocking Jimmy Carter — really? is that how low the Republicans are willing to go?
But that raises a broader issue – are we going to give mental aptitude tests before people are allowed to vote. Are we going to disqualify people on the basis of senility or IQ?
I’m sure Carter is mentally fine and able and I’m sure whoever mailed his ballot for him made sure to vote for the party of Carter’s preference ie Harris.
hrw
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Unlike Kamala, who lied about doing so, Trump has now actually worked at a McDonalds.
This franchisee is a genius, because Trump is drawing in customers.
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1848065650805334524?t=oFwsxDA2xW70U1mb7kqC_g&s=19
Just look at the lines. 🙂
https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1848072386123608441?t=ohiPOVr9sqZ34HiwPd3Q0w&s=19
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More of Trump’s PA visit….
https://x.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1848070227440857121?t=kmE5p23bArgOvlj2w_Wnbw&s=19
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1848069072271147180?t=BrTMz4HEvaxdr4IeRa6Qrw&s=19
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Discussion of tariffs during a port news conference I covered recently featured exec of key national retail assn who pointed out that tariffs – when used as short-term tools, to strategically affect policy — are helpful and there is a place for that.
Long-term, ongoing tariffs, however, simply tax importers (not the foreign countries) and will get passed on to consumers in higher prices for imported goods.
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Saw a news clip of Trump’s French-fry training today — it gave me the biggest craving for McDonald’s fries. Snacked on a bag of (‘healthy’) popcorn from Sprouts to help kill the urge.
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Oooh, good things can be found on X:
https://x.com/historyrock_/status/1847608836435087399
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Polls: We’ll see on Nov. 5 (partially anyway, counting and recounting may go on a while and then likely disputed by one side or the other?)
Still praying for a peaceful transition of power, whoever wins.
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“ELON MUSK: “We need to have empathy that is deep, not shallow. Shallow empty is caring about criminals, deep empathy is caring about the victims of criminals. Why do we have repeat violent offenders released on the street? How can America be the greatest country in the world and we don’t have safe streets?
My Mom was telling me three or four of her friends were assaulted in New York. Was anyone arrested? No. They didn’t even try. People deserve to have safe cities, and secure borders,”
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1847838238591049993?t=4gNYqAywUynRzENJLwEx3g&s=19
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I have been absent for a couple or three years. I couldn’t post.
I don’t like Trump BUT I won’t vote for Democrats. Leaving Afghanistan and people who helped us.
Death sentences!!!
I despise those who did that!!
Bob Buckles
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good to see you, Bob. I have wondered about you, prayed for you.
mumsee
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Hey Bob, good to see you – any current hairless dogs?
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