Well, that’s a first. School cancelled because of the forecast. I suppose the predicted 5-8 inches later today with ice before that is a good enough reason.
Peter. When I lived in Va. (DC Area), they used to cancel school often because of the forecast.
Wise move. If traveling became dangerous when kids were in school, they would still be trying to get home.
Good morning. The forcast says the temp will rise to 68° here. I’ve been to the store today already because we were out of eggs. I’d rather go get them from the hen house, but Publix makes a fair alternative.
Three teachers died from Covid in an upscale county here. Today the teachers may call in sick in protest of going back to in-classroom teaching. One teacher spoke at the board meeting and asked the board members to put on masks right there in the meeting since that was a final request of one who died.
Good morning. Supposed to get up to thirty today. The roosters are crowing.
Husband leaves in about two or three hours but nobody else is out of bed yet. Other than daughter and she left for work.
Morning…and what a beautiful photo up there!! Thank you AJ for giving us a glimpse of loveliness in the mornings! Gives me a tad bit of hope of Spring on this cold snowy morning in the forest 😊
A couple inches of new fallen snow on the ground and the plows are just now getting out…I hear it is quite the headache for drivers out on the roads…but the school bus just went down the road so it must be doable….
One time my husband I tried to get ahead of a snow storm. According to the forecast we should have been okay. We were listening to the radio and we were behind a school bus. Suddenly on the Iowa, MN border we hit a whiteout. We were afraid to pull over with all the semis behind us, but it was almost impossible to see anything, but red lights in front of us. Fortunately, I knew we were almost to a rest stop. We were able to pull in and saw a whole lot of truckers already pulled in. The rest stop had a hostess and when I enquired about any place to stay she pointed out a hotel right across the parking lot. She told me to hurry as people were already online trying to get rooms. We immediately drove over and got the last room. They were putting up cots for others. We heard they shut one of the main freeways shortly after we stopped.
After you have been out in blizzards, white outs and on bare ice, you do not want a repeat. Which is why so many older people become cautious, while the young laugh.
Oh we have hit those same conditions and you were blessed to have gotten the last room! 😊
And that is why I sent an email to our small group host yesterday telling them we are keeping an eye on the snow storm. To get there we must drive the normal half hour drive on icy unplowed county roads and it’s just not worth the risk of life and limb for this couple of old folk to be driving those conditions in the dark of night….
Well, they have hit the road. But not before little twin girl started walking. We tried to hold off on that until she got home to momma and daddy but she would not be put off.
We had a secondary happening related to the virus at work. I make the IV/lab draw kits each week. We get our tubes from the lab. I was out for a week, so no kits made that week. Now the lady who orders the tubes in the lab has been out with covid , so no tubes. Both departments are going to suffer as a result. Unless they get an emergency shipment, no tubes until Thursday. I put out the word to conserve. We had 60 kits left in our dept when i went home yesterday.
Praying for Kim and Mr P….. ♥️
That has been a favorite of mine Michelle… ♥️… brings tears in contemplation…
Asking the Lord to provide the need rk…He knows…..
Lots quieter at Mumsee’s house 😊
I drive through winter storms, got no choice. The one time I stopped and stayed at a nearer friends house due to the thick coating of ice pellets on the road, it was still a 30 minute drive back to work the next morning through a mixture of ice and snow. The couple I stayed with, the husband was a retired linesman for the hydro company and he told me hair raising drives to repair downed lines at all hours. Then again, one always has a set of snow tires for winter here, and my father has given me the stabilizer he used for decades in his car when he drove in all conditions for his work. Only a couple of times did I ever know him to turn around and come home, and on one occasion, it was because the ice was so thick on the road that you could skate on the road. I mean that literally. My father actually put his skates and skated on the road in front of our house. Even the year of the great ice storm (1990s) that left tens of thousands without power for days afterward, he just kept working.
My father believed in being prepared so he owned the chains that are put on tires for driving on snow and ice here in Atlanta. He was able to get out and about during the infrequent times they were needed.
A garbage truck just backed all the way up the hill and around the curve on my street. It is the oddest thing to see a giant truck going a distance backwards like that. I can not imagine why they do that. It seems so dangerous because no one would expect it. Even with that warning beeping they make when in reverse it still seems so dangerous when it’s not for a short distance.
When we were younger we drove in all sorts of conditions. We had snow tires and chains, of course. But we also had snow shovels and sand and things for traction in the event of the inevitable.
I remember one of those sheet of ice times. Probably in the Kenab area of southern Utah, northern Arizona. We just crested a hill and saw the downside: bordered with cars and trucks slid off the road. We just kept going as we couldn’t stop. We made it passed all of those cars and onto dryer road. The ice was thick and no reason but God that we stayed on the road.
He is headed to the ER.
I am helping an agent show property. I can do a no touch opening of the key box with my phone. She isn’t licensed in Alabama. After this I am going to get tested. She and the buyer know I have been exposed.
I was tired yesterday and had a headache. I haven’t had a fever. I’m just assuming I have it.
Now that I am older, I have no reason to be out in it and I am fine with that.
Another fun memory was in Germany. You recall the speed limit there. People tend to drive at a good clip. Even in heavy fog, which could explain the occasional multi car accident. But a snow flake was enough to stop traffic. Bizarre.
I think it is the recycling truck because now they are back going in the proper direction. The regular garbage already got picked up earlier. I know . . . I know, I need to get a life!
Little Miss’ dad is waiting on his results. He has to stay home three days. Her mommy was getting tested. One of them was scheduled to be off next week because P was having his left knee replaced February 2nd. Now that is delayed.
When we were younger we faced many an ice storm/blizzard condition situation. Going through Kansas in an ice storm is not for the faint of heart….neither is driving through the Pisgah National Forest during an ice storm…which we have..with two babies in the backseat! Seeing a sand/plow truck toppled over on it’s side gives one pause. Thankful for this somewhat slower season of retirement life… 👴🏻
Checked out the NextDoor thread w/all the folks trying to get a vaccine appt. The whole system is very confusing here in California and appointments vanish as soon as their posted.
Then there’s the added complication of the “2nd” shot appointments — they’re supposed to be given at the time you manage to get the first shot, but supplies are running out and one woman said she got the 1st shot but was told there was no appt available currently for her followup shot.
TThere’s got to be a better way to do this.
My theory is that within in a couple weeks things will be more organized and running more smoothly. But maybe I’m being optimistic.
Ah, yes, the crossing the country in the dead of winter trips. Crossed the country from Maryland to Georgia to Arizona and up into California, then to Idaho, across to Wisconsin and back to Idaho on our farewell tour before heading to Germany. Visiting relatives all along the way. Trip from Wisconsin to Idaho was bitterly cold though we had a nice heater in the Toronado. Three children in carseats. Husband noticed all the trucks pulled over and decided we would pull into the next hotel and pay whatever. Nicest place we had ever stayed in. He brought in the sour pickle case we had purchased in Maryland before embarking so the jars did not freeze. And the oranges we had picked off of my uncle’s trees in Lemon Cove.
I finally talked with my friend Karen yesterday. We had been texting for some days. I had told her I could no longer do the emotional roller coaster ride with things being so shaky in the world on top of the on and off situation with her. We have an understanding that we will not be in touch as much but we are still okay as friends. She said none in her family have gotten the vaccine yet. I could hardly believe her husband, a doctor, could not get it because he is retiring. She was in a good mood since her daughter had passed her nursing board exams and her husband retires this week.
~ According to a Thursday evening update to Bloomberg’s COVID-19 vaccine tracker, there’s only one state in the country that is doing a worse job than California is in administering its available COVID-19 doses.
California currently ranks 49th out of 50 states with a usage rate of 27.5%, beating only Alabama, which is locked into last place with a paltry 21.2% usage rate. For reference, the national usage rate is 38.8%, meaning California lags behind the rest of the country’s pace by double digits. ~
I haven’t read the other posts here yet, but see that Peter asked if that’s a bluebird or an indigo bunting. Though I didn’t take the photo and the bird is too small in the frame to know for sure, its coloring and its presence on a nestbox both suggest it’s a tree swallow.
DJ, what does “usage rate” mean? My first guess would be that all the other doses are getting wasted, but even for California that seems improbable.
Oh, I talked to one of my “no worse than the flu” brothers yesterday, and he didn’t say that this time. He told me in the fall that the old people who are dying of Covid would have died of the flu. This time he told me his mother-in-law has been in a care facility with a total of eight patients. For got Covid and died, two got it and were hospitalized, and the mother-in-law (92 and bedridden) got it but wasn’t hospitalized. As many people as I’ve known to have it in the last two months, I suspected my family might have started seeing higher numbers too, and apparently that is the case . . .
~ California currently ranks 49th out of 50 states with a usage rate of 27.5%, beating only Alabama, which is locked into last place with a paltry 21.2% usage rate. For reference, the national usage rate is 38.8%, meaning California lags behind the rest of the country’s pace by double digits.
The Golden State is in the same ballpark as Georgia (48th place with a usage rate of 28.0%) and Virginia (47th with a rate of 28.4%), and dramatically trails the other larger states. Of the nation’s six largest states, California is the only one with a usage rate below 40.0%:
… The five states with the highest usage rates are West Virginia (78.6%), North Dakota (71.3%), South Dakota (61.4%), Rhode Island (57.2%) and Louisiana (54.4%).
… California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Wednesday his state is now allowing individuals age 65 and older to get vaccinated, but the rollout has been far from smooth. …
You’ve all probably heard that some people feel poorly after the vaccine, particularly after the second dose. Nightingale had the second dose last week at work, and also had to work the next day. The next day started out fine, but as the afternoon came on, she grew tired, and her muscles began to ache. She came home after work, took her shower, then put on her comfy robe and rested on her couch for the evening.
The next day was a day off, but she felt fine as the day started. Later in the day, the muscle aches came back for a while, but not as bad as the day before.
Be careful about conclusions from that “% used” data.
First of all, it’s percent of doses used so far vs. doses delivered so far. It doesn’t mean that the rest has gone to waste, it just means that it hasn’t been used yet.
Second, the sfgate.com article is 10 days old. It changes every day. California is still only #45, but no longer far below the national average. In fact nobody is far below the national average.
Third, keep in mind that if a state just received a big batch today, very little of that has been used yet. That’s going to drive the % used down. That doesn’t mean that the state is doing a bad job. It’s just a matter of the timing. % used will creep back up as the vaccine gets used.
If it keeps dropping without creeping back up, THAT’s a problem. But to see that, you have to compare snapshots over time.
#1 North Dakota 85.4%
#2 West Virginia 84.5%
#3 New Mexico 77.9%
#10 Michigan 63.5% (Yay)
National Average 54.1%
#45 California 47.3%
#47 Alabama 46.8%
#50 Kansas 43.4%
Glad we could help you out there DJ. Part of the reason is the many rural areas don’t have clinics and doctors. You have to drive to the closest city. The other night there was a story on the news of a retired pharmacist coming out of retirement to help the small town pharmacy administer flu and Covid vaccines.
It’s probably clear, but in my 5:11, it should have been “Four” (fully half of the eight) who got Covid and died from it. Obviously this is of a high-risk group, elderly people in care homes, but you wouldn’t see 50% of them die from the flu and 50% of the others hospitalized with it.
In reading the book about thinking, I keep seeing real-life examples. For instance, I had a conversation with an elderly woman who was telling of having heard of people who get the Covid-19 shot and then have bad side effects. For instance, she heard about one person who now experiences trembling. So she won’t be getting the shot, thank you very much.
In looking only at the possibility of side effects, she is ignoring at least three other issues. One is the fact that the trembling might be temporary and might be a minor issue, and in fact it might not be caused by the shot at all. But let’s assume it’s actually a moderately serious side effect that was caused by the shot. What we don’t know is: (1) What percentage of people receiving the shot have a side effect of that level of seriousness or worse? The book about thinking says that people do one of two things with something that has a tiny possibility; they either ignore the possibility or they overemphasize it. People might “overemphasize” a small possibility by playing the lottery even though they have only one chance in 30 million to win, for example. He says that with the way our brain works, we have a hard time processing the difference between a .01 possibility (1% or 1/100) and a .00001 (1/100,000). (I didn’t look up the passage, so those might not have been the percentages he used, but it was something along that line.) But such a difference is statistically huge. If you find out that 1% of high school football players end up with an injury serious enough to be on crutches, you might be mildly concerned about your son wanting to try out for football. But it you find out the numbers are 1 in 100,000, that’s safer than taking part in the stamp-collecting club, and realistically you shouldn’t be concerned at all. If 10% of people getting the Covid shot are ending up with side effects more serious than a temporary fever, you might be concerned. But if you find out a million people in your state have had the shot, and only one person went to the emergency room within 24 hours (which might or might not have been connected to getting the shot), the number of side effects becomes statistically irrelevant. (The number, I’m sure, is somewhere in between those two extremes!)
The other serious issue being overlooked by people who look only at the safety of the vaccine, and think that less than 100% safety is too high a risk, is that (2) they are mentally comparing getting the vaccine and having side effects from the vaccine with not getting the vaccine and living a healthy life. They are NOT making a more relevant comparison: the risks of the vaccine vs. the risks of the virus. If you have a 1/10,000th chance of moderate to severe side effects from the vaccine, but one-in-five chance of getting the virus and one-in-six chance of dying from it if you get it (because of your age and/or health status) and one-in-three chance of surviving it but having moderate to severe side effects from it . . . then you should be comparing the 1/10,000 not with perfect health but with a 1/10 chance (10%) of either dying from the virus or having moderate to severe side effects from it. And of course you also need to consider the possibility of exposing others to the virus. My own risks from the virus are moderately low. But I will still probably get the vaccine when it is available because my getting the virus could expose others I know to much more serious risks.
Ok. While the swab is uncomfortable it isn’t that bad and I am a crybaby when it comes to these things.
Mr P is on the way home. They apologized but they have no room for him.
In more local news, Michigan started vaccinating anyone over 65 last week, so Mrs. B became eligible and got her first dose. She just had injection site soreness, no other symptoms. I hope the second dose isn’t too bad.
Flyboy, as an essential worker, is also eligible and has his first shot scheduled for later this week.
Kim (6:03), why yes, thank you for not making us dead last. 🙂
How is Mr. P? Did they give him some special medication? Better to get it now than 10 months ago when a lot less was known about how to treat it.
LA County today agreed to lift the ban on outdoor dining and some other businesses (numbers are still really high but have gone down slowly in the past week, leading them to believe we’re on the downside of this surge). Good news for restaurants who have had to lay off staff and have really struggled during all of this.
We’ve had quite the cold wind storm today, there’s a piece of plastic lattice from the neighbors’ outdoor shed hanging over my back fence now.
My deep-toned, ocean-buoy wind chime hasn’t stopped all day. And the outdoor thermometer was getting knocked down regularly, finally got that anchored on the patio.
The wind will continue tomorrow and then another rain storm arrives for Wednesday through Friday.
Kim, good question. CDC places people with extra risk factors in phase 1C. Michigan moved over-65 up from 1C to 1B, but they did not move extra risk factors up, so I (and my girl KJ) are in 1C. A couple weeks ago Michigan’s Health Department was estimating it would take until May for us to get there.
Oh Kim I am sorry to hear you both have it…take your vitamins! 😊
I don’t even know what the Covid status is in our area. Everyone seems to be going about their business though and the restaurants were allowed to serve indoors with restricted numbers. I rarely see anyone without a mask but now there is a controversy about whether we must wear a mask while hiking in the National forest…due to Biden’s do as I say not as I do order..sorry..couldn’t help myself 🙃
The UK variant has made it into a nursing home in a nearby county, and now is in the surrounding community via the workers families. The UK is reporting it not only is much more infectious, but has a slightly higher fatality rate too.
oh, Kim, feeling sad for you. Here I am, perfectly healthy, yet I am in quarantine with caution tape around my place that no one is allowed to cross, even me. Feels a little silly, yet I know it is important for the community and this country.
Wandering Views 
Well, that’s a first. School cancelled because of the forecast. I suppose the predicted 5-8 inches later today with ice before that is a good enough reason.
And I’m first!
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Is that a blue bird or an indigo bunting?
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Peter. When I lived in Va. (DC Area), they used to cancel school often because of the forecast.
Wise move. If traveling became dangerous when kids were in school, they would still be trying to get home.
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Good morning. The forcast says the temp will rise to 68° here. I’ve been to the store today already because we were out of eggs. I’d rather go get them from the hen house, but Publix makes a fair alternative.
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Three teachers died from Covid in an upscale county here. Today the teachers may call in sick in protest of going back to in-classroom teaching. One teacher spoke at the board meeting and asked the board members to put on masks right there in the meeting since that was a final request of one who died.
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Good morning. Supposed to get up to thirty today. The roosters are crowing.
Husband leaves in about two or three hours but nobody else is out of bed yet. Other than daughter and she left for work.
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Morning…and what a beautiful photo up there!! Thank you AJ for giving us a glimpse of loveliness in the mornings! Gives me a tad bit of hope of Spring on this cold snowy morning in the forest 😊
A couple inches of new fallen snow on the ground and the plows are just now getting out…I hear it is quite the headache for drivers out on the roads…but the school bus just went down the road so it must be doable….
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One time my husband I tried to get ahead of a snow storm. According to the forecast we should have been okay. We were listening to the radio and we were behind a school bus. Suddenly on the Iowa, MN border we hit a whiteout. We were afraid to pull over with all the semis behind us, but it was almost impossible to see anything, but red lights in front of us. Fortunately, I knew we were almost to a rest stop. We were able to pull in and saw a whole lot of truckers already pulled in. The rest stop had a hostess and when I enquired about any place to stay she pointed out a hotel right across the parking lot. She told me to hurry as people were already online trying to get rooms. We immediately drove over and got the last room. They were putting up cots for others. We heard they shut one of the main freeways shortly after we stopped.
After you have been out in blizzards, white outs and on bare ice, you do not want a repeat. Which is why so many older people become cautious, while the young laugh.
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Exactly. I have told my family I have no planned activities that are worth getting stuck in a ditch for.
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Oh we have hit those same conditions and you were blessed to have gotten the last room! 😊
And that is why I sent an email to our small group host yesterday telling them we are keeping an eye on the snow storm. To get there we must drive the normal half hour drive on icy unplowed county roads and it’s just not worth the risk of life and limb for this couple of old folk to be driving those conditions in the dark of night….
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This is the absolute best sermon I have ever heard on the abortion issue.
https://summitchurch.com/message/bring-the-little-children-to-me-a-plea-for-life
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It’s a blustery morning here, lots of wind and sporadic rain.
The new game seems to be trying to find a vaccine appointment online. I’ve struck out so far, but my neighbor scored one for Thursday.
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Virus, be gone, can’t happen soon enough
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Well, they have hit the road. But not before little twin girl started walking. We tried to hold off on that until she got home to momma and daddy but she would not be put off.
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Mr P Teate’s positive for Covid
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We had a secondary happening related to the virus at work. I make the IV/lab draw kits each week. We get our tubes from the lab. I was out for a week, so no kits made that week. Now the lady who orders the tubes in the lab has been out with covid , so no tubes. Both departments are going to suffer as a result. Unless they get an emergency shipment, no tubes until Thursday. I put out the word to conserve. We had 60 kits left in our dept when i went home yesterday.
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Oh, Kim. Praying it is a light case.
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Oh, Kim, sorry — yes, what rkessler said, hopefully a mild case
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The same. xoxo
Does this mean you’re quarantining, too? Or, managing him in quarantine?
And what about the adorable Miss?
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I’d never heard this song, “Watch the Lamb,” by Ray Boltz.
A friend suggested it this morning when I explained I’d be writing the “Living Holy Week” script this week for our church.
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One of my favorite songs, Michelle.
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Praying for Kim and Mr P….. ♥️
That has been a favorite of mine Michelle… ♥️… brings tears in contemplation…
Asking the Lord to provide the need rk…He knows…..
Lots quieter at Mumsee’s house 😊
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I drive through winter storms, got no choice. The one time I stopped and stayed at a nearer friends house due to the thick coating of ice pellets on the road, it was still a 30 minute drive back to work the next morning through a mixture of ice and snow. The couple I stayed with, the husband was a retired linesman for the hydro company and he told me hair raising drives to repair downed lines at all hours. Then again, one always has a set of snow tires for winter here, and my father has given me the stabilizer he used for decades in his car when he drove in all conditions for his work. Only a couple of times did I ever know him to turn around and come home, and on one occasion, it was because the ice was so thick on the road that you could skate on the road. I mean that literally. My father actually put his skates and skated on the road in front of our house. Even the year of the great ice storm (1990s) that left tens of thousands without power for days afterward, he just kept working.
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I hated to hear that dreaded news tha Mr. P has Covid. That is the new “C” word. So many have it now. It seems only a matter of time . . .
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My father believed in being prepared so he owned the chains that are put on tires for driving on snow and ice here in Atlanta. He was able to get out and about during the infrequent times they were needed.
A garbage truck just backed all the way up the hill and around the curve on my street. It is the oddest thing to see a giant truck going a distance backwards like that. I can not imagine why they do that. It seems so dangerous because no one would expect it. Even with that warning beeping they make when in reverse it still seems so dangerous when it’s not for a short distance.
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When we were younger we drove in all sorts of conditions. We had snow tires and chains, of course. But we also had snow shovels and sand and things for traction in the event of the inevitable.
I remember one of those sheet of ice times. Probably in the Kenab area of southern Utah, northern Arizona. We just crested a hill and saw the downside: bordered with cars and trucks slid off the road. We just kept going as we couldn’t stop. We made it passed all of those cars and onto dryer road. The ice was thick and no reason but God that we stayed on the road.
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He is headed to the ER.
I am helping an agent show property. I can do a no touch opening of the key box with my phone. She isn’t licensed in Alabama. After this I am going to get tested. She and the buyer know I have been exposed.
I was tired yesterday and had a headache. I haven’t had a fever. I’m just assuming I have it.
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Now that I am older, I have no reason to be out in it and I am fine with that.
Another fun memory was in Germany. You recall the speed limit there. People tend to drive at a good clip. Even in heavy fog, which could explain the occasional multi car accident. But a snow flake was enough to stop traffic. Bizarre.
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I think it is the recycling truck because now they are back going in the proper direction. The regular garbage already got picked up earlier. I know . . . I know, I need to get a life!
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Little Miss’ dad is waiting on his results. He has to stay home three days. Her mommy was getting tested. One of them was scheduled to be off next week because P was having his left knee replaced February 2nd. Now that is delayed.
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When we were younger we faced many an ice storm/blizzard condition situation. Going through Kansas in an ice storm is not for the faint of heart….neither is driving through the Pisgah National Forest during an ice storm…which we have..with two babies in the backseat! Seeing a sand/plow truck toppled over on it’s side gives one pause. Thankful for this somewhat slower season of retirement life… 👴🏻
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So sorry, Kim. I hope you don’t have it, and can get some rest while waiting for results. And that Mr. P recovers quickly.
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This is a fantastic production and it’s free! I’ll be watching again. https://fpatheatre.com/tour/mlot-virtual-dramatic-presentation-
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We had snow tires on our Toyota Celica in CT back in the Dark Ages. We moved to California in February, with the same tires, of course.
I found a man staring at my car one morning when I went out. “WHAT kind of tires are those?”
I’d never heard of them either.
We were able to swap them with another Celica owner who was headed to Minnesota and we were all happy!
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Praying, Kim.
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I am praying Kim,et.al.
It’s a messy thing.
We are holed up here. Elvera says “Like a knot on a log”.
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Checked out the NextDoor thread w/all the folks trying to get a vaccine appt. The whole system is very confusing here in California and appointments vanish as soon as their posted.
Then there’s the added complication of the “2nd” shot appointments — they’re supposed to be given at the time you manage to get the first shot, but supplies are running out and one woman said she got the 1st shot but was told there was no appt available currently for her followup shot.
TThere’s got to be a better way to do this.
My theory is that within in a couple weeks things will be more organized and running more smoothly. But maybe I’m being optimistic.
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*they’re
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Chas, have you or Elvera been able to get the vaccine yet?
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Ah, yes, the crossing the country in the dead of winter trips. Crossed the country from Maryland to Georgia to Arizona and up into California, then to Idaho, across to Wisconsin and back to Idaho on our farewell tour before heading to Germany. Visiting relatives all along the way. Trip from Wisconsin to Idaho was bitterly cold though we had a nice heater in the Toronado. Three children in carseats. Husband noticed all the trucks pulled over and decided we would pull into the next hotel and pay whatever. Nicest place we had ever stayed in. He brought in the sour pickle case we had purchased in Maryland before embarking so the jars did not freeze. And the oranges we had picked off of my uncle’s trees in Lemon Cove.
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NO
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I am getting snow pictures from Northern California and enjoying the beautiful morning fog here.
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I finally talked with my friend Karen yesterday. We had been texting for some days. I had told her I could no longer do the emotional roller coaster ride with things being so shaky in the world on top of the on and off situation with her. We have an understanding that we will not be in touch as much but we are still okay as friends. She said none in her family have gotten the vaccine yet. I could hardly believe her husband, a doctor, could not get it because he is retiring. She was in a good mood since her daughter had passed her nursing board exams and her husband retires this week.
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The funeral flowers:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UvKoT3cdWgHKBuZDA
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~ According to a Thursday evening update to Bloomberg’s COVID-19 vaccine tracker, there’s only one state in the country that is doing a worse job than California is in administering its available COVID-19 doses.
California currently ranks 49th out of 50 states with a usage rate of 27.5%, beating only Alabama, which is locked into last place with a paltry 21.2% usage rate. For reference, the national usage rate is 38.8%, meaning California lags behind the rest of the country’s pace by double digits. ~
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I haven’t read the other posts here yet, but see that Peter asked if that’s a bluebird or an indigo bunting. Though I didn’t take the photo and the bird is too small in the frame to know for sure, its coloring and its presence on a nestbox both suggest it’s a tree swallow.
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DJ, what does “usage rate” mean? My first guess would be that all the other doses are getting wasted, but even for California that seems improbable.
Oh, I talked to one of my “no worse than the flu” brothers yesterday, and he didn’t say that this time. He told me in the fall that the old people who are dying of Covid would have died of the flu. This time he told me his mother-in-law has been in a care facility with a total of eight patients. For got Covid and died, two got it and were hospitalized, and the mother-in-law (92 and bedridden) got it but wasn’t hospitalized. As many people as I’ve known to have it in the last two months, I suspected my family might have started seeing higher numbers too, and apparently that is the case . . .
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Percent of the target population that has received the last recommended dose for each vaccine recommended in the national schedule by vaccine.
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~ California currently ranks 49th out of 50 states with a usage rate of 27.5%, beating only Alabama, which is locked into last place with a paltry 21.2% usage rate. For reference, the national usage rate is 38.8%, meaning California lags behind the rest of the country’s pace by double digits.
The Golden State is in the same ballpark as Georgia (48th place with a usage rate of 28.0%) and Virginia (47th with a rate of 28.4%), and dramatically trails the other larger states. Of the nation’s six largest states, California is the only one with a usage rate below 40.0%:
… The five states with the highest usage rates are West Virginia (78.6%), North Dakota (71.3%), South Dakota (61.4%), Rhode Island (57.2%) and Louisiana (54.4%).
… California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Wednesday his state is now allowing individuals age 65 and older to get vaccinated, but the rollout has been far from smooth. …
https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-vaccine-COVID-tracker-rate-how-can-get-15873984.php
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LA County today said February is expected to continue being “slow” for vaccines
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You’ve all probably heard that some people feel poorly after the vaccine, particularly after the second dose. Nightingale had the second dose last week at work, and also had to work the next day. The next day started out fine, but as the afternoon came on, she grew tired, and her muscles began to ache. She came home after work, took her shower, then put on her comfy robe and rested on her couch for the evening.
The next day was a day off, but she felt fine as the day started. Later in the day, the muscle aches came back for a while, but not as bad as the day before.
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Be careful about conclusions from that “% used” data.
First of all, it’s percent of doses used so far vs. doses delivered so far. It doesn’t mean that the rest has gone to waste, it just means that it hasn’t been used yet.
Second, the sfgate.com article is 10 days old. It changes every day. California is still only #45, but no longer far below the national average. In fact nobody is far below the national average.
Third, keep in mind that if a state just received a big batch today, very little of that has been used yet. That’s going to drive the % used down. That doesn’t mean that the state is doing a bad job. It’s just a matter of the timing. % used will creep back up as the vaccine gets used.
If it keeps dropping without creeping back up, THAT’s a problem. But to see that, you have to compare snapshots over time.
The sfgate.com article gets its data from Bloomberg’s COVID-19 vaccine tracker at https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/. I copied the data out of there into a spreadsheet so I could sort it. Here are some of the standings:
#1 North Dakota 85.4%
#2 West Virginia 84.5%
#3 New Mexico 77.9%
#10 Michigan 63.5% (Yay)
National Average 54.1%
#45 California 47.3%
#47 Alabama 46.8%
#50 Kansas 43.4%
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I do wonder, though, if only 54% has been used so far, why are we hearing panic in the news about running out?
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Thanks Kevin
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Glad we could help you out there DJ. Part of the reason is the many rural areas don’t have clinics and doctors. You have to drive to the closest city. The other night there was a story on the news of a retired pharmacist coming out of retirement to help the small town pharmacy administer flu and Covid vaccines.
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It’s probably clear, but in my 5:11, it should have been “Four” (fully half of the eight) who got Covid and died from it. Obviously this is of a high-risk group, elderly people in care homes, but you wouldn’t see 50% of them die from the flu and 50% of the others hospitalized with it.
In reading the book about thinking, I keep seeing real-life examples. For instance, I had a conversation with an elderly woman who was telling of having heard of people who get the Covid-19 shot and then have bad side effects. For instance, she heard about one person who now experiences trembling. So she won’t be getting the shot, thank you very much.
In looking only at the possibility of side effects, she is ignoring at least three other issues. One is the fact that the trembling might be temporary and might be a minor issue, and in fact it might not be caused by the shot at all. But let’s assume it’s actually a moderately serious side effect that was caused by the shot. What we don’t know is: (1) What percentage of people receiving the shot have a side effect of that level of seriousness or worse? The book about thinking says that people do one of two things with something that has a tiny possibility; they either ignore the possibility or they overemphasize it. People might “overemphasize” a small possibility by playing the lottery even though they have only one chance in 30 million to win, for example. He says that with the way our brain works, we have a hard time processing the difference between a .01 possibility (1% or 1/100) and a .00001 (1/100,000). (I didn’t look up the passage, so those might not have been the percentages he used, but it was something along that line.) But such a difference is statistically huge. If you find out that 1% of high school football players end up with an injury serious enough to be on crutches, you might be mildly concerned about your son wanting to try out for football. But it you find out the numbers are 1 in 100,000, that’s safer than taking part in the stamp-collecting club, and realistically you shouldn’t be concerned at all. If 10% of people getting the Covid shot are ending up with side effects more serious than a temporary fever, you might be concerned. But if you find out a million people in your state have had the shot, and only one person went to the emergency room within 24 hours (which might or might not have been connected to getting the shot), the number of side effects becomes statistically irrelevant. (The number, I’m sure, is somewhere in between those two extremes!)
The other serious issue being overlooked by people who look only at the safety of the vaccine, and think that less than 100% safety is too high a risk, is that (2) they are mentally comparing getting the vaccine and having side effects from the vaccine with not getting the vaccine and living a healthy life. They are NOT making a more relevant comparison: the risks of the vaccine vs. the risks of the virus. If you have a 1/10,000th chance of moderate to severe side effects from the vaccine, but one-in-five chance of getting the virus and one-in-six chance of dying from it if you get it (because of your age and/or health status) and one-in-three chance of surviving it but having moderate to severe side effects from it . . . then you should be comparing the 1/10,000 not with perfect health but with a 1/10 chance (10%) of either dying from the virus or having moderate to severe side effects from it. And of course you also need to consider the possibility of exposing others to the virus. My own risks from the virus are moderately low. But I will still probably get the vaccine when it is available because my getting the virus could expose others I know to much more serious risks.
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Ok. While the swab is uncomfortable it isn’t that bad and I am a crybaby when it comes to these things.
Mr P is on the way home. They apologized but they have no room for him.
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In more local news, Michigan started vaccinating anyone over 65 last week, so Mrs. B became eligible and got her first dose. She just had injection site soreness, no other symptoms. I hope the second dose isn’t too bad.
Flyboy, as an essential worker, is also eligible and has his first shot scheduled for later this week.
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Kevin shouldn’t you qualify due to your heart condition?
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It will come as no surprise I am positive too.
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Kim (6:03), why yes, thank you for not making us dead last. 🙂
How is Mr. P? Did they give him some special medication? Better to get it now than 10 months ago when a lot less was known about how to treat it.
LA County today agreed to lift the ban on outdoor dining and some other businesses (numbers are still really high but have gone down slowly in the past week, leading them to believe we’re on the downside of this surge). Good news for restaurants who have had to lay off staff and have really struggled during all of this.
We’ve had quite the cold wind storm today, there’s a piece of plastic lattice from the neighbors’ outdoor shed hanging over my back fence now.
My deep-toned, ocean-buoy wind chime hasn’t stopped all day. And the outdoor thermometer was getting knocked down regularly, finally got that anchored on the patio.
The wind will continue tomorrow and then another rain storm arrives for Wednesday through Friday.
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Oh, sorry to hear that Kim. Soup and rest for both of you, along with old movies for 2-3 weeks.
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Seems to be a lot of folks getting the virus lately
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Very sorry to hear you have it, too, Kim.
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Kim, good question. CDC places people with extra risk factors in phase 1C. Michigan moved over-65 up from 1C to 1B, but they did not move extra risk factors up, so I (and my girl KJ) are in 1C. A couple weeks ago Michigan’s Health Department was estimating it would take until May for us to get there.
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And, Kim, I’m so sorry to hear Covid has hit you and Mr. P. You’re in my prayers.
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Oh Kim I am sorry to hear you both have it…take your vitamins! 😊
I don’t even know what the Covid status is in our area. Everyone seems to be going about their business though and the restaurants were allowed to serve indoors with restricted numbers. I rarely see anyone without a mask but now there is a controversy about whether we must wear a mask while hiking in the National forest…due to Biden’s do as I say not as I do order..sorry..couldn’t help myself 🙃
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Kim – I’m sorry to hear that you both have it. Praying for you and Mr P to get through this quickly, with no serious after-effects.
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Kim, sorry to hear that you both have it.
The UK variant has made it into a nursing home in a nearby county, and now is in the surrounding community via the workers families. The UK is reporting it not only is much more infectious, but has a slightly higher fatality rate too.
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oh, Kim, feeling sad for you. Here I am, perfectly healthy, yet I am in quarantine with caution tape around my place that no one is allowed to cross, even me. Feels a little silly, yet I know it is important for the community and this country.
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Kim, sorry to hear that you both have it. Take it easy!
Jo, yes, important for the community, and a short season.
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torrential rain again, not so bad to be stuck at home. the roads will be solid mud
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Morning all and good night
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Kevin B @ 5:59 pm I do wonder, though, if only 54% has been used so far, why are we hearing panic in the news about running out?
Because the news media needs to hype things up in order to get viewers/readers. (No offense to our resident media person.)
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Just walking away….
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and leaving seventy five for me?
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