Son in Florida evidently had a tree come down on his roof. Did not come through into granddaughter’s room. “They” say it was a tornado, he is not so certain.
I’ve been awake since before 5. I stayed in bed dozing for an hour or so then got up. I’ve had my breakfast, read the Bible, prayed a little, surfed the Web a little, and now here I am.
Oh, I was awake from about 1-3 this morning. I looked at FB until Mr. P woke up and asked if I needed the TV on. Our TV watching system is complicated and by the time I get up, get both remotes, put my glasses on so I can see, battle the menu options…well I am then WIDE AWAKE so I usually lie there until he wakes and does it for me…so I listened to Neal DeGrassi Tyson and his show The Cosmos for an hour, then listened to Mr. P snore and Amos cough, some time after all that I fell asleep only to awaken again at 6 when Master Amos decided it was time for us to GET UP!
So far this morning I have solved a puzzle on my phone. I’m up to 225 pieces, but it uses a lot of battery power to play. I read a few chapters in a book. I have dressed all the way to the shoes including earrings and wedding rings, cooked sausage, cut up grapes, sliced cheese and have put out a piece of bread so that when Little Miss arrives she can have sausage, cheese toast, and grapes for breakfast.
It’s busy life I lead. I do have a 9 am call with the Productivity Coach at the office to discuss training and education. He wants $400 to teach a class in May and the office has told me that with the downturn they don’t have it in the budget to pay. So guess who gets to have this conversation?????
I think Little Miss and her Papa have arrived.
Good day, all!
I have been up since a little after 7 a.m. which is the norm since Art continues going to work and I continue to cook his eggs. When he bought our eggs he did not buy what I buy. I get organic brown eggs. He bought store brand white JUMBO eggs, non-organic. Some of these are double yolk eggs. I just wonder what kind of hormone they used to get double yolk eggs. Beggars can’t be choosy (the phone tried to make that cheesy).
AJ- I, too, can sleep anywhere at any time. It’s a blessing, and a curse, as Monk would say. I find myself dozing if I sit still too long (like 15 minutes or so).
I have had computer trouble. I don’t know what it was, but LindaS came over and turned off the computer. She held the button down for about a minute, then turned it on and it worked.
Me? ????????????????
I feel better now that it’s Tuesday. These lockdown versions of “ground hog” Mondays are just the hardest to wake up to for some reason.
An article in the LA Times this morning says many more of us in LA County may have been exposed and stricken with this virus than once thought, which is good (though it’s not enough to produce what they’ve called that “herd” immunity effect). I remember having a really bad cold late last year sometime, it drove me to urgent care where the doctor simply pronounced it as a “cold virus.” I had no high temperature, however, but I don’t know if that’s always necessary with coronavirus. And it could have been (probably was) a more common cold virus, as the doctor said at the time.
But my veterinarian said he and the staff were all hit with a horrific ‘something’ in January, one of them was out for 3 weeks and this thing produced very strange symptoms in a few of them, crazy and disturbing dream cycles, fevers & he had some bleeding in one of his eyes. Nothing like any of them had experienced before, he said. He’s thinking now that could have been the coronavirus.
Anyway, it’s good news in one sense — the death rate might be lower than we’ve feared.
But it’s still something we don’t want to ‘get.’ One of the more troubling aspects in my mind is the damage it can leave behind to our bodies.
Interviewing the port of la director at 2 today about his new role as ‘logistics’ manager for finding and getting medical supplies into the city. Then doing another story that’ll be more fun — one of the fancier doggy ‘hotels’ is sponsoring free dog playgroups every Tuesday as a way to help dogs cope with the lockdown of all the dog parks. Unfortunately, as with everything else these days, I’ll be doing it from afar but will try to get their video hookup to watch the dogs — and our photographer will be there.
I’m also being told a group of well-known elderly nuns in a convent at one of our local parishes has been told they need to “move” out by November and they have no where to go yet, but I’m unclear why they must move, trying to get more info out of someone.
oh, I wish I had that gift of falling asleep. I’m sure that Michelle does too. It can take a while, but sometimes I discipline my mind and recite scripture and sing hymns.
I am being disciplined in my eating, I do not need to gain weight. Did my five miles yesterday and I have to half gallon milk jugs full of water to use for weights.
Getting ready for a zoom Bible study.
Yeah my gift for falling asleep at will only seems to work during daylight hours. Apparently it’s for napping purposes only. I still get insomnia at night though. Sometimes I suspect it’s because I napped for too long earlier in the day. 🙂
As I mentioned this weekend, the MTNA Virtual Conference starts today. There are currently over 60 sessions on the website — workshops, recitals, keynotes, and other presentations and events that were originally planned for the Live Conference. That’s about 3 times as much stuff as I would have been able to attend if I’d gone in person.
Not every session interests me, but a lot of them do, so in between homeschooling and teaching piano, I’m going to be “at” the Conference instead of here for a while.
Happy wandering, wanderers. 🙂 See you later. Take care of yourselves.
I’ve been listening to Enduring Word podcasts about specific Bible chapters–basically, it’s a recording of teaching sermons. I figure if I fall asleep, at least my brain isn’t contaminated by something else. Of course, I did listen to Matthew 23 three times before I heard the entire teaching while wide awake! 🙂
DJ, the antibody tests that studies such as the one done at Berkeley that apparently show higher exposures than illness are not reliable: https://world.wng.org/content/antibody_tests_disappoint (follow the link in the article for more detail).
Yes, I’ve heard that too roscuro. Much to learn still …
______________________
Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year
By JOHN MCCORMACK
April 21, 2020 12:25 PM
Beware a second wave.
Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.
Coronavirus Treatment Has Investors Excited, but the Latest Study Looks Inconclusive
SCIENCE & TECH
Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year
By JOHN MCCORMACK
April 21, 2020 12:25 PM
First responders evacuate sick crew members from two cruise ships, the Costa Favolosa and Costa Magica at the U.S. Coast Guard station at the Port of Miami in Miami, Fla., March 26, 2020. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)
Beware a second wave.
Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.
As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans. …
____________________________
… The early results from L.A. County come three days after Stanford researchers reported that the coronavirus appears to have circulated much more widely in Santa Clara County than previously thought.
Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was 48,000 to 81,000.
The findings bolster the sense that a significant portion of those carrying the virus could show no symptoms at all, and therefore be unknowingly infecting others. Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, said during the White House briefing that the USC results underscore “concern about asymptomatic spread” because it is harder to trace.
“This has been the fundamental question to begin with,” she said, emphasizing the importance of treating the disease as “highly contagious.” …
The mortality rate is based on the number of confirmed infections; the higher the number of infections, the lower the fatality rate. Both studies estimated a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%, which is closer to the death rate associated with the seasonal flu.
Researchers emphasized that these initial findings should not make people dismiss the risks of COVID-19.
Paul Simon, chief science officer for Los Angeles County’s public health department, noted that the county was averaging 50 deaths from coronavirus a day, eclipsing cardiac disease as the top killer.
“If this mortality were to continue for the whole year — we hope it doesn’t, but if it did — COVID would be the leading cause of death in Los Angeles County,” Simon said. …
… Neither the Stanford nor USC studies have been vetted by the typical peer review process, and their initial conclusions have been fiercely debated. USC researchers did not release an underlying technical report Monday that detailed their methodology.
Dr. Warner Greene, a virologist with Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco, said that research out of Wuhan, China — where the virus is believed to have originated — found that the number of infections was likely 2.5 times higher than originally known. The studies in Los Angeles and Santa Clara, by contrast, said the true case counts were between 28 and 85 times greater than official reports.
“I don’t know where the truth lies yet,” Greene said. “I do know that we knew all along that we were missing a lot of infections. The degree of the miss is what’s in question.” …
… As antibody testing has risen in prominence and are increasingly available on the commercial market, so too have concerns about accuracy over the results, particularly the occurrence of false positives, which could inflate estimate of infection rates.
It is unlikely the initial findings will cause county officials to immediately change their response to the virus. Barbara Ferrer, the county’s top health official, said that the high rate of infection only underscored the need to continue with physical distancing, wearing cloth face coverings and staying home if sick.
“We need to assume that at any point in time, we could be infected and that all of the other people we come in contact with could also be infected,” Ferrer said Monday.
Ferrer also took pains to note that much is still unknown about whether the presence of antibodies to this virus means a person is immune.
“Being positive for COVID-19 antibodies does not mean that a person is immune, or that a person is not able to be reinfected,” Ferrer said. “More research is really needed to understand what protections people have who may have already been infected with COVID-19.”
____________________________
Despite thousands gathering for the country’s largest anti-shutdown protest at the state Capitol in Harrisburg, Pa., Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said he is extending the state’s stay-at-home order through May 8. But a few states have announced plans to get back to work. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. government infectious disease expert, warned Monday that resuming businesses too soon could cause a spike in new COVID-19 cases.
Who’s reopening for business? Georgia will begin restarting its economy by Friday, Gov. Brian Kemp announced on Monday. His plan, the most aggressive in the nation, requires businesses to follow social distancing and other hygiene requirements. It keeps bars, live performance venues, and amusement parks closed. Businesses in most of Tennessee will reopen next week, but Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and some of their surrounding areas will remain closed. South Carolina is allowing some non-essential retail businesses and its beaches to reopen, but several popular coastal areas, including Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head, are keeping beach access closed to the public. Texas will reopen state parks this week, followed by looser restrictions allowing restaurants to offer curbside service. All four states are led by Republican governors. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, said Monday he would let the state stay-at-home order expire next week as long as strict social distancing and protective measures continued.
__________________________
You know, taking that Stanford study (I mixed Berkeley and Stanford up in my earlier comment) at face value for the sake of argument, 81,000 is still only 4 percent of Santa Clara County’s population. Since this is a new virus to which humans have no previous immunity, that would mean 96 percent still have not been exposed. Taken at face value, for the sake of argument, the study is simply confirming the value of social distancing, since Santa Clara has been on lockdown since mid-March, one of the first places in the US to lockdown.
Of course, back to critique, the study did not actually test 81,000 people who were positive for antibodies, rather, that number is an estimate extrapolated from a smaller sample size that was actually tested for antibodies.
Couldn’t the “ability” to fall asleep after sitting down for a short period of time an indication of not getting enough sleep at night?
Hubby never slept enough at night when he was working. Each Christmastime, I would think how nice it would be if some evening, when he had the next day off, we could sit in the living room with the tree lights on but the other lights off, drink some hot cocoa, and talk. But I knew that relaxing in the dimness of the lighting would put him to sleep pretty quickly. So we never did that.
What device does Hoopla work with. My eReader is not a Kindle, and the local library recently discontinued the elibrary portal that worked with my ereader – apparently the ebook portal was charging them exorbitant rates. But I noticed they also have hoopla.
My eye doctor’s office called and said the doctor wanted to see me sooner. I said I am not going out much so I cancelled. Then my primary care doctor’s office called to set my next year’s well doctor appointment visit. It is really hard to think that far in the future right now.
I have been outside pulling vines two separate times today. We are due to have more bad weather with possible tornadoes on Thursday.
Does anyone do video celebrations? Wesley’s graduation was scheduled for May 16th. I just still want to do something. Ideas?
What are your churches thinking about VBS this year? We’re having a board of Ed meeting on Thursday to discuss.
We’re working with the Mystery Island theme (I think it’s from Answers in Genesis. I don’t choose, I just blow a whistle for recess). They wrote today suggesting alternate ideas, including using the Mystery Island program for next summer and adopting a virtual version for this summer. (No whistle needed).
Our VBS is slated for the week after Father’s Day, the fourth week in June. We’re simply not sure what makes the most sense. If we go with June, we’ve got to start preparing NOW.
Our current quarantine ends on May 15, I think. I’ve lost track of it all . . .
Per library stats in the paper yesterday, use of Hoopla has gone up more than 750% since sheltering in place, Overdrive up 350%. You can check out movies, too, through the platforms.
My dad could and would nap for short amounts throughout the day. He never had a problem with falling asleep and always woke up refreshed. I wish I could do that. He also would approve of the cookies for breakfast. I have some recipes for breakfast cookies, but have never tried them.
Was told by the port director that we’ve now missed entirely the spring fashion season (for store orders and shipments); next up will be the back-to-school season and, of course, the end-of-the-year holiday season.
Not looking good for much of anything with so much closed and so many people out of work.
I had a morning walk then this afternoon my neighbor and I decided on a social distancing walk together once again. It has been a tad bit over 2 weeks since she had sheltered in place and we stayed a good 6 ft apart on our walk 😊
Some small businesses here can open May 1 with strict guidelines. No more than 10 people in said businesses and that number includes any employees. There must be a one direction path through the small business so that there is no close contact of shoppers. My friends owning small antique shoppes are finding this new directive interesting and challenging but they are up for it. Everyone of my shoppe owner friends have had no mercy from their landlords and it has proven to be frustrating to find help with the small business loans…so much goes on behind the doors of those in charge of the funds and it can be infuriating! Frustrating days for so many….
Michelle, I’m on the CE committee and we’re scheduled for the first week of June. Committee meeting next week (by Zoom), and I’m assuming we will cancel, but I honestly don’t know. I probably won’t be helping this year if they don’t cancel, though I’m still willing to help edit the material. (We write our own.)
Shooting death toll increased to 23. Some of the houses had burned to the ground, as the shooter started at least five structural fires in addition to car fires.
We’re still planning on running summer camp, starting July 5th. But of course that all depends on our health authority and how things are going.
Roscuro, I use Hoopla as well as Libby on my iPhone. Very handy. I’ve been reading about 3 novels a week lately. I can only download 5 books a month on Hoopla, so when that runs out, I switch to Libby.
I just checked in with Annms to see how she is doing. She has tested positive for COVID-19. Her fevers keep spiking at 103. Let’s pray her through this!
Good morning from baby and me!
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Do you people sleep the day away?
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Son in Florida evidently had a tree come down on his roof. Did not come through into granddaughter’s room. “They” say it was a tornado, he is not so certain.
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Apparently, the real and I are the only ones awake at this time. Baby went back to bed.
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Everyone else is sleeping here too. But they stayed up late.
I’ve been up since 6:45.
Had coffee and 3 choc. chip cookies for breakfast.
What? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Don’t judge me. 🤨
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Three chocolate chip cookies, I could definitely see, but not the coffee. Maybe wash them down with pepsi or dr pepper.
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I’ve been awake since before 5. I stayed in bed dozing for an hour or so then got up. I’ve had my breakfast, read the Bible, prayed a little, surfed the Web a little, and now here I am.
I’m tired and may take a nap later.
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Good morning. I have been awake for a while, just not much to say. Thinking mostly, reading the Bible and praying a little.
There have been many articles paying tribute to those killed on Saturday night and Sunday morning, but this one captures how it feels for those left behind: https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/victims-nova-scotia-shooting_ca_5e9dac26c5b63c5b587216d6
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Peter,
I nap like a Democrat votes. Early, and sometimes more than once a day. 🙂
Since I was a boy I’ve had the ability to sleep at will, and pretty much anywhere. It’s a gift. 🙂
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Morning! Cute ducks in a row…sort of! 😊 Where is Chas?
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Oh, I was awake from about 1-3 this morning. I looked at FB until Mr. P woke up and asked if I needed the TV on. Our TV watching system is complicated and by the time I get up, get both remotes, put my glasses on so I can see, battle the menu options…well I am then WIDE AWAKE so I usually lie there until he wakes and does it for me…so I listened to Neal DeGrassi Tyson and his show The Cosmos for an hour, then listened to Mr. P snore and Amos cough, some time after all that I fell asleep only to awaken again at 6 when Master Amos decided it was time for us to GET UP!
So far this morning I have solved a puzzle on my phone. I’m up to 225 pieces, but it uses a lot of battery power to play. I read a few chapters in a book. I have dressed all the way to the shoes including earrings and wedding rings, cooked sausage, cut up grapes, sliced cheese and have put out a piece of bread so that when Little Miss arrives she can have sausage, cheese toast, and grapes for breakfast.
It’s busy life I lead. I do have a 9 am call with the Productivity Coach at the office to discuss training and education. He wants $400 to teach a class in May and the office has told me that with the downturn they don’t have it in the budget to pay. So guess who gets to have this conversation?????
I think Little Miss and her Papa have arrived.
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Good day, all!
I have been up since a little after 7 a.m. which is the norm since Art continues going to work and I continue to cook his eggs. When he bought our eggs he did not buy what I buy. I get organic brown eggs. He bought store brand white JUMBO eggs, non-organic. Some of these are double yolk eggs. I just wonder what kind of hormone they used to get double yolk eggs. Beggars can’t be choosy (the phone tried to make that cheesy).
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Chas still too busy for us? Or has he forgotten all about us?
Praying for you, Chas, and the sweetest woman in the world.
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Janice, we get double yolks at times.
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AJ- I, too, can sleep anywhere at any time. It’s a blessing, and a curse, as Monk would say. I find myself dozing if I sit still too long (like 15 minutes or so).
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Mumsee @ 10:10 Thanks.
I have had computer trouble. I don’t know what it was, but LindaS came over and turned off the computer. She held the button down for about a minute, then turned it on and it worked.
Me? ????????????????
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Chas- It’s called a reboot. Although sometimes I want to leave off the ‘re’ part and use a steel toed boot.
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Just checking in to see if Chas showed up…Hi Chas!! ❤️
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I woke up to the sound of calling birds; lovely.
What is the deal with mercenary children instead of sweet, sensitive little girls? Is it the STEM-type parents? Remnants of farm life?
My son’s 15-year-old cat had to be put down on Sunday. The daughters were on it, “Shadow died. Now we get a kitten!”
Sympathetic Grandmother: “Oh, I’m sorry to hear that.”
“And when Rambo dies (the sloppy laughing Boston Terrier standing next to her), we get a PUPPY!”
Sigh.
Meanwhile, the more “sensitive” Adorables responded: “We get two kittens when Athena dies!(That cat is 19).
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Chas is here, the day has started.
I feel better now that it’s Tuesday. These lockdown versions of “ground hog” Mondays are just the hardest to wake up to for some reason.
An article in the LA Times this morning says many more of us in LA County may have been exposed and stricken with this virus than once thought, which is good (though it’s not enough to produce what they’ve called that “herd” immunity effect). I remember having a really bad cold late last year sometime, it drove me to urgent care where the doctor simply pronounced it as a “cold virus.” I had no high temperature, however, but I don’t know if that’s always necessary with coronavirus. And it could have been (probably was) a more common cold virus, as the doctor said at the time.
But my veterinarian said he and the staff were all hit with a horrific ‘something’ in January, one of them was out for 3 weeks and this thing produced very strange symptoms in a few of them, crazy and disturbing dream cycles, fevers & he had some bleeding in one of his eyes. Nothing like any of them had experienced before, he said. He’s thinking now that could have been the coronavirus.
Anyway, it’s good news in one sense — the death rate might be lower than we’ve feared.
But it’s still something we don’t want to ‘get.’ One of the more troubling aspects in my mind is the damage it can leave behind to our bodies.
Interviewing the port of la director at 2 today about his new role as ‘logistics’ manager for finding and getting medical supplies into the city. Then doing another story that’ll be more fun — one of the fancier doggy ‘hotels’ is sponsoring free dog playgroups every Tuesday as a way to help dogs cope with the lockdown of all the dog parks. Unfortunately, as with everything else these days, I’ll be doing it from afar but will try to get their video hookup to watch the dogs — and our photographer will be there.
I’m also being told a group of well-known elderly nuns in a convent at one of our local parishes has been told they need to “move” out by November and they have no where to go yet, but I’m unclear why they must move, trying to get more info out of someone.
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Hi Chas, good to see you. Thanking God for Linda (again). That is also the name of the granddaughter I get to take care of most days.
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oh, I wish I had that gift of falling asleep. I’m sure that Michelle does too. It can take a while, but sometimes I discipline my mind and recite scripture and sing hymns.
I am being disciplined in my eating, I do not need to gain weight. Did my five miles yesterday and I have to half gallon milk jugs full of water to use for weights.
Getting ready for a zoom Bible study.
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Yeah my gift for falling asleep at will only seems to work during daylight hours. Apparently it’s for napping purposes only. I still get insomnia at night though. Sometimes I suspect it’s because I napped for too long earlier in the day. 🙂
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Good afternoon.
As I mentioned this weekend, the MTNA Virtual Conference starts today. There are currently over 60 sessions on the website — workshops, recitals, keynotes, and other presentations and events that were originally planned for the Live Conference. That’s about 3 times as much stuff as I would have been able to attend if I’d gone in person.
Not every session interests me, but a lot of them do, so in between homeschooling and teaching piano, I’m going to be “at” the Conference instead of here for a while.
Happy wandering, wanderers. 🙂 See you later. Take care of yourselves.
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Instant sleep: I have that gift (He gives to His beloved, sleep…)and it works for naps and night.
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I’ve been listening to Enduring Word podcasts about specific Bible chapters–basically, it’s a recording of teaching sermons. I figure if I fall asleep, at least my brain isn’t contaminated by something else. Of course, I did listen to Matthew 23 three times before I heard the entire teaching while wide awake! 🙂
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Mumsee can conduct the webinars for urbanites ready to go back to nature. I know they’d be entertaining, just watching what goes on in the background.
Headline: (West Virginia) Gov. Jim Justice: Coronavirus May Drive Urban Exodus, Return to Rural Life
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I suspect a logical study a year from now will show that Coronovirus was not as bad as all thy hype makes it out to be.
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But I believe it’s bad enough (for precautions) from the indications we have right now.
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DJ, the antibody tests that studies such as the one done at Berkeley that apparently show higher exposures than illness are not reliable: https://world.wng.org/content/antibody_tests_disappoint (follow the link in the article for more detail).
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Yes, I’ve heard that too roscuro. Much to learn still …
______________________
Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year
By JOHN MCCORMACK
April 21, 2020 12:25 PM
Beware a second wave.
Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.
Coronavirus Treatment Has Investors Excited, but the Latest Study Looks Inconclusive
SCIENCE & TECH
Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year
By JOHN MCCORMACK
April 21, 2020 12:25 PM
First responders evacuate sick crew members from two cruise ships, the Costa Favolosa and Costa Magica at the U.S. Coast Guard station at the Port of Miami in Miami, Fla., March 26, 2020. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)
Beware a second wave.
Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.
As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans. …
____________________________
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oh, the link: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/
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And/But from the earlier Times story:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
___________________
… The early results from L.A. County come three days after Stanford researchers reported that the coronavirus appears to have circulated much more widely in Santa Clara County than previously thought.
Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was 48,000 to 81,000.
The findings bolster the sense that a significant portion of those carrying the virus could show no symptoms at all, and therefore be unknowingly infecting others. Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, said during the White House briefing that the USC results underscore “concern about asymptomatic spread” because it is harder to trace.
“This has been the fundamental question to begin with,” she said, emphasizing the importance of treating the disease as “highly contagious.” …
The mortality rate is based on the number of confirmed infections; the higher the number of infections, the lower the fatality rate. Both studies estimated a mortality rate of 0.1% to 0.2%, which is closer to the death rate associated with the seasonal flu.
Researchers emphasized that these initial findings should not make people dismiss the risks of COVID-19.
Paul Simon, chief science officer for Los Angeles County’s public health department, noted that the county was averaging 50 deaths from coronavirus a day, eclipsing cardiac disease as the top killer.
“If this mortality were to continue for the whole year — we hope it doesn’t, but if it did — COVID would be the leading cause of death in Los Angeles County,” Simon said. …
… Neither the Stanford nor USC studies have been vetted by the typical peer review process, and their initial conclusions have been fiercely debated. USC researchers did not release an underlying technical report Monday that detailed their methodology.
Dr. Warner Greene, a virologist with Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco, said that research out of Wuhan, China — where the virus is believed to have originated — found that the number of infections was likely 2.5 times higher than originally known. The studies in Los Angeles and Santa Clara, by contrast, said the true case counts were between 28 and 85 times greater than official reports.
“I don’t know where the truth lies yet,” Greene said. “I do know that we knew all along that we were missing a lot of infections. The degree of the miss is what’s in question.” …
… As antibody testing has risen in prominence and are increasingly available on the commercial market, so too have concerns about accuracy over the results, particularly the occurrence of false positives, which could inflate estimate of infection rates.
It is unlikely the initial findings will cause county officials to immediately change their response to the virus. Barbara Ferrer, the county’s top health official, said that the high rate of infection only underscored the need to continue with physical distancing, wearing cloth face coverings and staying home if sick.
“We need to assume that at any point in time, we could be infected and that all of the other people we come in contact with could also be infected,” Ferrer said Monday.
Ferrer also took pains to note that much is still unknown about whether the presence of antibodies to this virus means a person is immune.
“Being positive for COVID-19 antibodies does not mean that a person is immune, or that a person is not able to be reinfected,” Ferrer said. “More research is really needed to understand what protections people have who may have already been infected with COVID-19.”
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From world magazine’s “sift” email today:
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States debate reopening
Despite thousands gathering for the country’s largest anti-shutdown protest at the state Capitol in Harrisburg, Pa., Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, said he is extending the state’s stay-at-home order through May 8. But a few states have announced plans to get back to work. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. government infectious disease expert, warned Monday that resuming businesses too soon could cause a spike in new COVID-19 cases.
Who’s reopening for business? Georgia will begin restarting its economy by Friday, Gov. Brian Kemp announced on Monday. His plan, the most aggressive in the nation, requires businesses to follow social distancing and other hygiene requirements. It keeps bars, live performance venues, and amusement parks closed. Businesses in most of Tennessee will reopen next week, but Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and some of their surrounding areas will remain closed. South Carolina is allowing some non-essential retail businesses and its beaches to reopen, but several popular coastal areas, including Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head, are keeping beach access closed to the public. Texas will reopen state parks this week, followed by looser restrictions allowing restaurants to offer curbside service. All four states are led by Republican governors. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, said Monday he would let the state stay-at-home order expire next week as long as strict social distancing and protective measures continued.
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You know, taking that Stanford study (I mixed Berkeley and Stanford up in my earlier comment) at face value for the sake of argument, 81,000 is still only 4 percent of Santa Clara County’s population. Since this is a new virus to which humans have no previous immunity, that would mean 96 percent still have not been exposed. Taken at face value, for the sake of argument, the study is simply confirming the value of social distancing, since Santa Clara has been on lockdown since mid-March, one of the first places in the US to lockdown.
Of course, back to critique, the study did not actually test 81,000 people who were positive for antibodies, rather, that number is an estimate extrapolated from a smaller sample size that was actually tested for antibodies.
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Success! I was able to check out and download two books on hoopla.
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Couldn’t the “ability” to fall asleep after sitting down for a short period of time an indication of not getting enough sleep at night?
Hubby never slept enough at night when he was working. Each Christmastime, I would think how nice it would be if some evening, when he had the next day off, we could sit in the living room with the tree lights on but the other lights off, drink some hot cocoa, and talk. But I knew that relaxing in the dimness of the lighting would put him to sleep pretty quickly. So we never did that.
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What device does Hoopla work with. My eReader is not a Kindle, and the local library recently discontinued the elibrary portal that worked with my ereader – apparently the ebook portal was charging them exorbitant rates. But I noticed they also have hoopla.
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My eye doctor’s office called and said the doctor wanted to see me sooner. I said I am not going out much so I cancelled. Then my primary care doctor’s office called to set my next year’s well doctor appointment visit. It is really hard to think that far in the future right now.
I have been outside pulling vines two separate times today. We are due to have more bad weather with possible tornadoes on Thursday.
Does anyone do video celebrations? Wesley’s graduation was scheduled for May 16th. I just still want to do something. Ideas?
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I read Hoopla on my Ipad. It also works on my Iphone and computer.
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What are your churches thinking about VBS this year? We’re having a board of Ed meeting on Thursday to discuss.
We’re working with the Mystery Island theme (I think it’s from Answers in Genesis. I don’t choose, I just blow a whistle for recess). They wrote today suggesting alternate ideas, including using the Mystery Island program for next summer and adopting a virtual version for this summer. (No whistle needed).
Our VBS is slated for the week after Father’s Day, the fourth week in June. We’re simply not sure what makes the most sense. If we go with June, we’ve got to start preparing NOW.
Our current quarantine ends on May 15, I think. I’ve lost track of it all . . .
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Per library stats in the paper yesterday, use of Hoopla has gone up more than 750% since sheltering in place, Overdrive up 350%. You can check out movies, too, through the platforms.
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My dad could and would nap for short amounts throughout the day. He never had a problem with falling asleep and always woke up refreshed. I wish I could do that. He also would approve of the cookies for breakfast. I have some recipes for breakfast cookies, but have never tried them.
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Was told by the port director that we’ve now missed entirely the spring fashion season (for store orders and shipments); next up will be the back-to-school season and, of course, the end-of-the-year holiday season.
Not looking good for much of anything with so much closed and so many people out of work.
It’s going to be a strange year.
2020, booo. As Chas would say.
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I slept till after 8:00 this morning. Of course, I didn’t get to sleep at all until after 4:00 . . .
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I had a morning walk then this afternoon my neighbor and I decided on a social distancing walk together once again. It has been a tad bit over 2 weeks since she had sheltered in place and we stayed a good 6 ft apart on our walk 😊
Some small businesses here can open May 1 with strict guidelines. No more than 10 people in said businesses and that number includes any employees. There must be a one direction path through the small business so that there is no close contact of shoppers. My friends owning small antique shoppes are finding this new directive interesting and challenging but they are up for it. Everyone of my shoppe owner friends have had no mercy from their landlords and it has proven to be frustrating to find help with the small business loans…so much goes on behind the doors of those in charge of the funds and it can be infuriating! Frustrating days for so many….
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Michelle, I’m on the CE committee and we’re scheduled for the first week of June. Committee meeting next week (by Zoom), and I’m assuming we will cancel, but I honestly don’t know. I probably won’t be helping this year if they don’t cancel, though I’m still willing to help edit the material. (We write our own.)
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Shooting death toll increased to 23. Some of the houses had burned to the ground, as the shooter started at least five structural fires in addition to car fires.
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Oh, Roscuro, that is all so horrible!
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We’re still planning on running summer camp, starting July 5th. But of course that all depends on our health authority and how things are going.
Roscuro, I use Hoopla as well as Libby on my iPhone. Very handy. I’ve been reading about 3 novels a week lately. I can only download 5 books a month on Hoopla, so when that runs out, I switch to Libby.
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Libby doesn’t seem to have as many books I’m interested in reading, it I’ve got it, too.
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You also have to place holds on some books on Libby and wait for them to become available.
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I just checked in with Annms to see how she is doing. She has tested positive for COVID-19. Her fevers keep spiking at 103. Let’s pray her through this!
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Oh Janice thanks for checking on her and letting us know. We will be lifting her up in prayer before our Lord… 😢
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Janice, so sorry to hear that–but thanks for letting us know.
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