36 thoughts on “News/Politics 11-3-16

  1. Hillary must really be desperate.
    This from Drudge: :

    Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s tours of soul food restaurants and black churches to court black voters in recent weeks doesn’t seem to be paying off.

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  2. HRW, I was thinking the other day about how Canada and other Western countries would react to a Trump victory. I think your situation would be similar to my OKC Thunder after Kevin Durant left in free agency.

    1. A Trump-led US would no longer lead the free world. Other Western countries would need to work with his sane aides to try to keep him from saying or doing disastrous things.

    2. On trade issues, Canada might become the leader of the Western Hemisphere and lead Latin American countries to negotiate new deals with Asian and European countries. In the short run, Canada would also be hurt as Trump imitates Hugo Chavez and makes the US poor. In the long run you can replace lost US trade with more trade from Asia.

    3. You will be on your own in dealing with Russia and China. Don’t try to force them and other traditional countries to accept perversion. It just makes them mad.

    4. Be prepared for immigrants. Just as Texas is now being flooded with immigrants from Northern states whose leaders have ruined their economies, Canada will be a place of refuge for highly educated Americans who never liked Trump and won’t like what his protectionism, liberalism and lunacy will do for the US.

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  3. What people don’t seem to understand is that it is hard to emigrate to another country. They don’t want us.
    That is why I roll my eyes every time some liberal elite says they are moving to Canada if Trump is elected.
    Here we are 5 days out from Election Day and the more the (poop) gets stirred, the more it stinks.

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  4. hwesseli: So Madame Corruption is a “mildly flawed candidate” who “violated arcane government email protocols”? You Canadians still don’t get it, do you? Will you finally change your tune after the indictments are handed out?

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  5. Kim, You are correct. It has always been that way. That is why many of our ancestors sold themselves as indentured servants for 7 years to pay for passage to the New World.

    Emigrants also need a skill to earn a living in their new country. Nevertheless, this election will convince many that the US is no place for their grandkids to live.

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  6. Tychicus, Hillary is more than mildly flawed. However, from the perspective of a US ally, she would continue the basic US approach on foreign policy and trade that has existed for 70 years. Trump is seen as a dangerous wild card on trade and foreign policy. Huge majorities of people in every US ally oppose Trump. From a Western perspective, Trump looks like a calamity. From a Christian perspective, it is very possible that God will use Trump to make America poorer and weaker. I think we can think of several reasons He might want to do that.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Ricky, on your fourth point: I doubt most of them will come here. The long winter would be enough to keep away those used to the balmy weather of Hollywood – look at how many Canadian born actors end up living in the States, coughWilliam Shatnercough 😀

    Liked by 2 people

  8. rw: Hillary would most likely continue the policies of Obama, which at least in the area of foreign policy wouldn’t really be a continuation of the general US approach. Fortunately, it seems that her crimes and other baggage will keep her from being able to do more damage.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. “2. On trade issues, Canada might become the leader of the Western Hemisphere and lead Latin American countries to negotiate new deals with Asian and European countries. In the short run, Canada would also be hurt as Trump imitates Hugo Chavez and makes the US poor. In the long run you can replace lost US trade with more trade from Asia.”

    That’s funny. So a socialist, which the Canadians just elected as their leader, will be OK and save the western hemisphere, but the country who didn’t elect one won’t be because he’s gonna rule like a socialist.

    What?!

    Do you ever think this stuff through before posting, or do you just spew what’s in your head with no filter? That’s some twisted not-really logical logic you got goin’ there Ricky.

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  10. Ricky,

    Since I know you’re a fan of 538 and their predictions, here’s one from 3 days ago when they said the Cubs had a smaller chance of winning than Trump did…… 😆

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/

    “With a 2-1 World Series deficit and home-field advantage slipping away, the Cubs needed this game. Instead, the Indians soundly defeated the Cubs 7-2 on Saturday night in Game 4, silencing the normally raucous Wrigley crowd and drastically decreasing Chicago’s chance of taking home the championship.”

    “It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.) But if Chicago is going to have any chance of a Series win, they’ll have to awaken their bats in Sunday’s game.”
    —————————

    Let’s hope their record continues to be this good, eh? 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Poor John Ziegler just can’t bare the idea that Trump might win, and if he does, the world will collapse, or something, but probably not, but maybe… 🙄

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/what-the-next-four-years-might-look-like-if-trump-somehow-wins/

    “So, if Trump somehow wins…

    There will be immediate astonishment and fear not just here, but around the entire world. Global financial markets will tank, if not crash, at least in the short run, as everyone comes to grips with the extreme uncertainty of an unqualified conman having taken over the most important position in the world. He is far more of one than even Barack Obama was when the news media got him elected in 2008.

    There will be enormous teeth-gnashing in the news media about whether the American experiment is officially over and whether we are still the country we thought we were. Panicked minority groups will surely protest the results and may even break into nationwide riots.

    Trump’s win will be blamed on the FBI Director’s letter and, especially if that inquiry turns out to have been based on nothing significant, his election will be seen as inherently illegitimate. Our already severe political divisions will be greatly exacerbated. America’s standing in the global community will be instantaneously diminished.

    Then, after taking office as the most hated and least respected president in the modern era, Trump’s first order of business will be filling Antonin Scalia’s Supreme Court seat. After running with a promise to nominate a true-blue conservative from a pre-approved list, Trump will be shocked to find out that Democrats are unwilling to rubber stamp his first nominee. With around 50 votes in the Senate, they will easily filibuster that person with no fear of a highly unpopular president whose mere election has set off civil unrest.”
    ——————————

    I know he didn’t mean for this to be amusing, but it is. 🙂

    REPENT!!!!!!

    The End is near!!!!!!!

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  12. Well what a final week, eh? Crazy, but why should we be surprised considering the political year that was 2016? Wild and unpredictable, start to finish.

    Of course, I still remember how Romney was virtually tied with Obama going into election night four years ago … and how quickly he went down in flames as returns came in. An early dog walk that night for me, it was pretty stunning after all the suspense leading up to it. The poll data is often a little wobbly in these days of cell phones.

    Only God knows the end from the beginning.

    I do think there will be some widespread uproar in the aftermath, however, and — depending on how close the results actually are — accusations about rigged or fraudulent voting and voter “suppression” (which already we’re hearing a lot about from the left).

    Liked by 2 people

  13. AJ, @10:43. What I “spew” is based on a basic understanding of economics, government and history. The vast majority of American business leaders and large investors see things as I do. If you don’t believe me, watch what the stock market does every time Trump surges. Trumpkins need to learn that Trump’s protectionism has been rejected by virtually the entire world. However, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela followed a Trumpian approach to trade.

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  14. On last night’s Fox News reports:

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/11/analyze-this-19.php

    __________________________

    Bret Baier opened last night’s edition of Special Report with several scoops on the progress of the FBI investigations of Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation (video below). Baier slightly expanded on his scoops in an interview with Brit Hume on On the Record, the video and transcript of which are posted here. …

    … Baier talks about the likelihood of indictments, but it is not apparent that a grand jury has even been impaneled. Indeed, it is highly unlikely that a grand jury has been impaneled. The impaneling of a grand jury and the presentation of evidence lie within the discretion of the Department of Justice. So long as the FBI investigation remains limited by the Department of Justice, the FBI investigation(s) will not receive the support it requires to proceed along a natural course. …

    … Watching FOX News, we seem to be living in an alternate or parallel universe, perhaps the one conjured by Timothy Groseclose. Have Baier’s scoops escaped the right-wing echo chamber? One would like to read intensely reported pieces that expand on the questions implicit in Baier’s scoops.

    The Wall Street Journal’s Devlin Barrett has written intensely reported pieces on the ongoing investigations. Today Barrett reports (with Christopher M. Matthews) on the FBI investigation “Secret recordings fueled FBI feud in Clinton probe.” It is hard to reconcile Baier’s bullet points with Barrett’s reportage (e.g., “FBI investigators grew increasingly frustrated with resistance from the corruption prosecutors, and some executives at the bureau itself, to keep pursuing the case”). Even so, this particular article only glancingly crosses paths with Baeir’s report. Much more reporting is required to evaluate and understand Baier’s bullet points. …
    _____________________________________________

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  15. I’m still thinking Clinton will win on Tuesday. But “win” may be a relative term these days. Almost like a consolation prize considering the task of presiding over such a divided nation.

    If it’s to be another 4 years (following 8 years of a Democrat in the White House), I’m hoping the GOP can at least hang on to the House & Senate.

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  16. AJ @ 10:43 The politics of Canada’s current leader is irrelevant. He has not renounced Canada’s treaty obligations. I never said anyone would “save the western hemisphere”. The fact is that world leaders (and other intelligent people from all over the world) understand that Trump is a lunatic, a con man, and a buffoon who has advocated renouncing treaty responsibilities and current trade agreements. No other leader is going to respect or follow Trump. The moment Trump takes the oath of office, the US will cease to be the leader of the free world. This will create a vacuum. No one nation can fill that vacuum. Russia, China, Iran and others will seek to exploit that vacuum. On the economic and trade front, I would expect Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile and others to assume leadership roles on behalf of the Western Hemisphere, as the US takes a step back.

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  17. I think Trump now has at least a 50% chance of winning the election. However, he will be the first Republican in 60 years not to win a majority of college educated whites.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-03/clinton-s-growing-lead-with-college-educated-whites-could-doom-trump

    Many of those people understand economics, trade, world affairs and have an idea of what a Trump presidency could bring. They will be the first to leave a Trumpian Republican Party if that party rejects Paul Ryan. Many in that group will make up the first wave of emigrants, whether we have a President Trump or a President Hillary.

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  18. I like 538’s political predictions as well as its sports’ predictions. Sports are much easier to predict than politics. For example, if two teams were absolutely evenly matched the odds of coming back from a 3 to 1 deficit are 1 in 8 or 12.5% (.5x.5x.5).

    Of course teams aren’t exactly evenly matched. There is home field advantage to consider. In baseball, the relative strength of the starting pitchers is a huge factor. Silver and his people are quite good at this.

    This year has been tough on all political predictions. Hillary is a pretty standard bad candidate. Trump is a bad candidate, but he is far from standard. He won the primaries with little staff and virtually no ground game. Mistakes that would have killed other candidates are mere scratches to Trump.

    Trump’s support is different from that of most Republicans. I posted the stat on college educated whites. However, the last time I checked he was winning whites without a college degree by 40%! That is unprecedented and could make the difference in Pennsylvania or Michigan.

    Whenever I think of statistics I remember the time my Dad, my niece and I spent three hours of a driving trip to Colorado calculating in our heads the odds of “getting a lay down” when playing a hand of “42”. Fortunately, there were no other family members in the car.

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  19. AJ, There never were many college educated whites where I was born and where I currently live. I can assure you Trump has more than a 40% lead among non college educated whites in my county. Romney won the county by 87% to 13%. Our young people are now going to college. They are not real big on Trump.

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  20. Carlson is a conservative. Greta is a fine reporter. She just never has been a conservative. It was weird the way she seemed to give Trump as much favorable press as the twin nitwits: Hannity and O’Reilly.

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  21. DJ, I wish Hume would keep a show as well, but I don’t think he wants to do that.

    I have been impressed with Brett Baier. He has grown in his job. He broke the big FBI/Hillary stories last night.

    If Hillary wins, Fox should give Judge Napolitano an hour a night to deal with her various ethical/criminal issues.

    If Trump wins, Fox should give John Stossel 30 minutes a night to teach economics and 30 minutes a night to Gutfeld to comment on the Farce of the Day.

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  22. 1. immigration — the now cliche threat to move to Canada isn’t taken too seriously. However, the Iraqi war and the Bush reelection did result in an influx of educated Americans to my city — teachers, professors, medical professionals, etc. I’ve worked with several and sought medical advice from some.

    2.Hilary is a mildly corrupt candidate. Outside of the US right wing echo chamber, most people don’t understand the Hilary hate — in comparison to Trump — a sexist, racist bankrupt businessman who has admitted to sexual assault. In addition Trump has abused his charity for personal gain, doesn’t pay income tax, is being sued for child sex assault and fraud, etc etc,

    3. Canada elected a liberal not a socialist. Trudeau has for most part continued Harper’s economic policies. There’s not much difference between a Canadian liberal and conservative. As a socialist I see Trudeau as Pepsi and Harper as Coke. As Ricky points out, Canada has continued the capitalist policy of free trade whether they are run by liberals or conservative.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. Thanks, AJ, for linking to the article on the “K” signs at the baseball game. I’m one of those clueless people who didn’t know what a row of K signs at a baseball game means. But I dismissed the idea that they were a reference to the KKK.

    It seems the whole country could benefit from James’s advice to be “quick to listen, slow to speak, and slow to become angry.”

    Liked by 3 people

  24. There is, of course, also a left-wing echo chamber that seems to now be in complete and total denial …

    From Krauthammer

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441760/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-2016-foreign-policy-implications

    _________________________________

    Comey’s announcement brought flooding back — to memory and to the front pages — every unsavory element of the Clinton character: shiftiness, paranoia, cynicism, and disdain for playing by the rules. It got worse when FBI employees began leaking stories about possible political pressure from the Department of Justice and about parallel investigations into the Clinton Foundation. …

    … And it raises … troubling questions: Regarding the FBI, do we really want to elect a president who will likely come into office under criminal investigation by law enforcement? Congressional hearings will be immediate and endless. A constitutional crisis at some point is not out of the question.

    … In a normal election, the FBI and WikiLeaks factors might be disqualifying for a presidential candidate. As final evidence of how bad are our choices in 2016, Trump’s liabilities, especially on foreign policy, outweigh hers. We are entering a period of unprecedented threat to the international order that has prevailed under American leadership since 1945.

    After eight years of President Obama’s retreat, the three major revisionist powers — Russia, China, and Iran — see their chance to achieve regional dominance and diminish, if not expel, American influence. At a time of such tectonic instability, even the most experienced head of state requires wisdom and delicacy to maintain equilibrium. Trump has neither. His joining of supreme ignorance to supreme arrogance, combined with a pathological sensitivity to any perceived slight, is a standing invitation to calamitous miscalculation.

    … Two generations of Americans have grown up feeling that international stability is as natural as the air we breathe. It’s not. It depends on continual, calibrated tending. It depends on the delicate balancing of alliances and the careful signaling of enemies. It depends on avoiding self-inflicted trade wars and on recognizing the value of allies like Germany, Japan, and South Korea as cornerstones of our own security rather than satrapies who are here to dispatch tribute to their imperial master in Washington. It took seven decades to build this open, free international order. It could be brought down in a single presidential term. That would be a high price to pay for the catharsis of kicking over a table.
    __________________________________

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