Fifty years from now: Grandparent: In 2016 the Democrats nominated The Wicked Witch of the West and she won. Grandchild: How is that possible? Grandparent: The Republicans nominated a man who was largely Bozo the Clown, with a dash of Hitler thrown in for good measure.
We don’t vote until June — but it looks like even with that late primary date California may still have a say … I haven’t seen any polls yet for our state GOP race.
(It’s the only reason really that I remain a party ‘member’ — if you’re not, you can’t vote in the GOP primaries.)
On Tuesday, Donald Trump will discover whether his weekend struggles were a speed bump — or the first signs of larger troubles ahead.
If the polls are to believed, Trump is in for a dominant day, with blowouts in Michigan and Mississippi to be complemented by another win in Idaho.
If Trump falls short, and particularly if he falls short to Ted Cruz for the second time in four days, the businessman’s delegate math gets more complicated, and the soothsayers who’ve long predicted Trump’s collapse will finally see hope for vindication. …
__________________________________
The rules: If anyone wins an outright majority, he collects all 32 delegates. Failing that, things get divvied up in complicated fashion. In that scenario, 29 delegates will be issued proportionally based on the statewide vote, but candidates need to earn at least 20 percent to get a piece of the action. The final three are members of the RNC. The primary is open to registered Republicans only, but voters can fill out GOP affiliation cards on Election Day.
State of play: The good news for Trump here is that, in the lone prominent poll, he led with 30 percent, ahead of Cruz (19 percent), Rubio (16 percent) and Kasich (5 percent). If those numbers hold, Trump would own all the statewide-based delegates, with nobody else clearing the 20 percent threshold.
The good news for everyone else is that the poll was conducted in late February — before Cruz and Rubio turned a pair of debates into anti-Trump pile-on sessions, and before Rubio launched a slew of Trump-style attacks on the billionaire’s appearance and mental fitness.
Rubio spent time cultivating the state and its donors in 2015. But Cruz, who spent Saturday night in Idaho, may be best-positioned among Trump’s opponents to get at least a share of the statewide pool, particularly given his recent success in other primaries limited to registered Republicans.
Mumsee, I heard the two knew each other — if that’s true, it was probably some kind of personal spat gone bad.
This probably sums up what some of us feel about Cruz at this point, however, both as a candidate going forward and as a potential president. He strikes me simply as a very unpleasant and overly aggressive person. Not a Reagan, by a long shot. But it is what it is. And as with all elections, compromise must happen. It’s how it works.
… “We all know the establishment hates Ted Cruz,” said Hogan Gidley, a former spokesman for Mike Huckabee. “But the sweet irony there is he’s one of them. He’s just better at hiding it.”
What has separated Cruz from the so-called “Republican establishment” has been less about substance and more about his style, which many Republicans have perceived as grating at best and manipulative at worst.
“The biggest challenge for Ted Cruz is himself,” said one senior Republican operative who does not support Cruz. “He has this innate ability to drive people crazy.”
“It’s not based on ideology,” the Republican added. “It’s based on personality.”
The broad ill will toward Cruz among Republicans has helped to propel his presidential campaign, lending Cruz credibility to run as a senator with an anti-Washington message. Now, it will be Cruz’s challenge to appeal to those same Republicans’ pragmatism and their misgivings about Trump.
And it appears he’s making progress.
“Cruz is not my preference,” Graham said. “Most people like me would rather have Kasich or Rubio. But I just don’t see them being able to take Trump down.”
________________________________
Cruz may develop more of his personal leadership qualities if he appears to be in line for the nomination. I hope so anyway. General election candidates — and certainly presidents — need those. They need to be able to inspire and evangelize, if you will, the unconverted. So far, I’m not seeing those qualities in him, either as a primary election candidate or as a senator. He’s more of a “my way or the highway” kind of guy. So far.
Our country needs someone who can speak persuasively to a broader audience than just a small, core base. And someone who can do that winsomely.
The conservative movement needs someone who can bring in new people and speak to those who are not of our “traditional” core group if it is to thrive again and govern effectively. I’m not persuaded Cruz can do that, but I may be wrong.
And we also need to remember that even if Cruz (or one of the other non-Trump candidates) manages to get the nomination, there will almost certainly be a Trump 3rd candidacy that threatens to split the (already minority) Republican voter base.
donna j: Anyone who has followed Sen. Cruz’s career in the Senate knows that (contrary to the Real Clear Politics piece) he most definitely is NOT establishment, and that it definitely has been substance that actually separates him from other Republicans. He stood on principle and the Constitution even when no one else would…
My concern overall, too, is that a president needs to be president of all the people. Reagan pulled it off (not to say he didn’t have his detractors); our current president clearly has not (and with bitter and devastating results).
Our country is terribly divided. I’d love to see a conservative president who is also gifted uniquely as a leader. It’s asking a lot, I realize, but that’s my prayer for our nation as a whole. We’re in bad shape, folks.
and having a conservative president who doesn’t also have (very) strong leadership qualities and skills in bringing people together with a vision and with broad inspiration, in the end, isn’t going to get us out of this mess.
Being popular with a small subset of one political party won’t carry him far. He needs to broaden his appeal. Of course, then he won’t be that popular with the small subset any longer ….
And be prepared for this: If Cruz is nominated (and further, if he wins the general election in November) he automatically becomes the had of what is then the Republican establishment. 🙂
Ah, and yet another pesky, false email caper — getting old.
_____________________________
Marco Rubio’s campaign accused Ted Cruz’s camp of “dirty tricks” Tuesday, after Cruz supporters in Hawaii blasted out an email suggesting the Florida senator was about to drop out of the race.
The email, sent by “Ted Cruz Hawaii,” cites a disputed CNN report claiming some Rubio advisers have told him to drop out of the 2016 race before Florida’s primary next week, fearing he could be humiliated by a defeat in his home state….
… Rubio’s campaign already has adamantly denied the CNN report — and when it turned up in the Hawaii email, immediately blasted Cruz for “dirty tricks.” …
A spokeswoman for the Cruz campaign told Fox News the website had not only been told to take down the email, but had also been told to cease using official campaign logos for any purpose.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the website for the organization – http://www.TedCruzHawaii.org – appeared to have been taken down.
___________________________________________
Shouldn’t the issue be CNN’s supposedly false reporting, and not that someone in the Cruz campaign in Hawaii passed the bogus story along? Sounds like more whining from little Marco. 😆
And they’re right, it will be humiliating for him and his supporters when he loses his home state of Florida.
That’s exactly the kind of ruthlessness that frankly disturbs me about Cruz.
I hope I’m wrong about him and/or he begins to grow into the roll of potential general election candidate. Again, he has some bridges to build (heard from yet another GOP friend today how “creepy” Cruz strikes him).
Don’t blame the messenger, that image of him is just pretty pervasive.
Polls predict the billionaire business mogul will run riot in Michigan and Mississippi, wins that would paper over Saturday’s losses to Ted Cruz. If Trump can beat Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Midwest, while also blowing out Cruz in the deep South, the GOP establishment will have gone to war against its own party’s frontrunner and gotten nothing to show for it.
The thing to remember, too, is we’ll all have to (somehow) unite and be on the same team after this is all over. Hold some of that fire for the Democrats. 😉
It’s so split now, it’s hard to say who the standard bearer will end up being (although Trump gets my bail-out, most likely I’m afraid).
I was happy to vote for Cruz today. He certainly isn’t charismatic, but I don’t get the “creepy” characterization. I get the “ruthless” characterization even less.
“Donald Trump’s facing a wall within his party, with Republicans who don’t currently support him far more apt to prefer Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in a two-way race — or even to favor a contested convention to block Trump’s nomination.
Trump continues to lead in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 34 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who are registered to vote saying they’d like to see him win the nomination. But he trails both Cruz and Rubio one-on-one. And preferences for Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich have grown as others have left the race, while Trump’s support has essentially remained unchanged for months.”
“Other results also mark Trump’s challenges as a front-runner under siege. He trails Cruz and Rubio alike in all four personal attributes tested in this survey. Fewer than half of leaned Republicans -– from 42 to 45 percent –- call Trump honest and trustworthy, say he understands their problems, think he has the right personality and temperament, or say he has the right experience to be president. Comparable numbers are 63 or 64 percent on each attribute for Cruz and 61 to 63 percent for Rubio on the first three items. He slips to 50 percent on experience.
Some of these have worsened for Trump: a 12-point drop among leaned Republicans since September in seeing him as honest and trustworthy and an 8-point drop in thinking he has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president.”
Poll watchers say Trump needs to clear 35 tonight in his wins.
It has been impressive that he’s done so well in such disparate parts of the country, from the Deep South to New England and the Midwest.
Let the process play on, we’ll see who’s left standing. But it’s looking more and more like no one candidate will get the needed delegates for a first-ballot nomination.
If we’re lucky, Trump — should he not be nominated — will decide NOT to mount an independent campaign.
Donald Trump easily snatched up the first of Tuesday’s four GOP contests, handily winning Mississippi as he tries to squash rivals’ claims that his weekend losses reflect some lasting vulnerability.
Three television networks called Mississippi for Trump, projecting the GOP front-runner with 52 percent of a vote that was still being counted. It marks a painful defeat for Ted Cruz, whose campaign stunned Republicans with upsets in Kansas and Maine on Saturday and whose campaign strategy was built on the expectation of success in conservative southern states.
The biggest contest of the night is yet to come – Michigan and its 59 delegates. The Midwestern state tests Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s theory that his campaign will perform better up north, terrain he considers his “turf.” …
____________________________________________
Donald Trump swept to victory Tuesday in delegate-rich primaries in Michigan and Mississippi, Fox News projects, regaining momentum after his stunning march through the primaries was slowed over the weekend – while Hillary Clinton once again found herself faced with the prospect of splitting the night’s contests with rival Bernie Sanders.
Interesting to me the almost complete absence in this election cycle of debate over social issues that have dominated conservative-liberal positions in the past (abortion, gay marriage, etc.).
Not sure what that means, but these issues don’t seem to be driving much of the discussion for the first time in a while. I suppose a good part of it may be that the liberal positions have become so widely accepted in the culture as a whole (not to mention codified).
Wandering Views 
Fifty years from now: Grandparent: In 2016 the Democrats nominated The Wicked Witch of the West and she won. Grandchild: How is that possible? Grandparent: The Republicans nominated a man who was largely Bozo the Clown, with a dash of Hitler thrown in for good measure.
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Voting day.
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Go tell ’em, Mumsee. 🙂
We don’t vote until June — but it looks like even with that late primary date California may still have a say … I haven’t seen any polls yet for our state GOP race.
(It’s the only reason really that I remain a party ‘member’ — if you’re not, you can’t vote in the GOP primaries.)
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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-michigan-mississippi-peaking-220398
___________________________________
On Tuesday, Donald Trump will discover whether his weekend struggles were a speed bump — or the first signs of larger troubles ahead.
If the polls are to believed, Trump is in for a dominant day, with blowouts in Michigan and Mississippi to be complemented by another win in Idaho.
If Trump falls short, and particularly if he falls short to Ted Cruz for the second time in four days, the businessman’s delegate math gets more complicated, and the soothsayers who’ve long predicted Trump’s collapse will finally see hope for vindication. …
__________________________________
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From that same Politio article linked above:
____________________________________________
Idaho primary — 32 delegates
The rules: If anyone wins an outright majority, he collects all 32 delegates. Failing that, things get divvied up in complicated fashion. In that scenario, 29 delegates will be issued proportionally based on the statewide vote, but candidates need to earn at least 20 percent to get a piece of the action. The final three are members of the RNC. The primary is open to registered Republicans only, but voters can fill out GOP affiliation cards on Election Day.
State of play: The good news for Trump here is that, in the lone prominent poll, he led with 30 percent, ahead of Cruz (19 percent), Rubio (16 percent) and Kasich (5 percent). If those numbers hold, Trump would own all the statewide-based delegates, with nobody else clearing the 20 percent threshold.
The good news for everyone else is that the poll was conducted in late February — before Cruz and Rubio turned a pair of debates into anti-Trump pile-on sessions, and before Rubio launched a slew of Trump-style attacks on the billionaire’s appearance and mental fitness.
Rubio spent time cultivating the state and its donors in 2015. But Cruz, who spent Saturday night in Idaho, may be best-positioned among Trump’s opponents to get at least a share of the statewide pool, particularly given his recent success in other primaries limited to registered Republicans.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-michigan-mississippi-peaking-220398#ixzz42KO9WIGB
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
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Rubio’s done. He just won’t admit it yet. When he loses Florida on the 15th, that oughta about do it. 🙂
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And Ted Cruz has received the coveted Chuck Norris endorsement. So vote for Ted, or Chuck will kick you in the head. 😆
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I’m still just not crazy about Cruz. But I’ll vote for him if it comes to that. 😦
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Hey. I am a white belt in Tae Kwon Do.
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Look what happened to that Idaho pastor after showing support for Cruz. Though I suspect it had more to do with the drug people he was trying to help.
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Mumsee, I heard the two knew each other — if that’s true, it was probably some kind of personal spat gone bad.
This probably sums up what some of us feel about Cruz at this point, however, both as a candidate going forward and as a potential president. He strikes me simply as a very unpleasant and overly aggressive person. Not a Reagan, by a long shot. But it is what it is. And as with all elections, compromise must happen. It’s how it works.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/08/cruzs_surge_forces_gop_to_reconsider_him.html
___________________________________________
… “We all know the establishment hates Ted Cruz,” said Hogan Gidley, a former spokesman for Mike Huckabee. “But the sweet irony there is he’s one of them. He’s just better at hiding it.”
What has separated Cruz from the so-called “Republican establishment” has been less about substance and more about his style, which many Republicans have perceived as grating at best and manipulative at worst.
“The biggest challenge for Ted Cruz is himself,” said one senior Republican operative who does not support Cruz. “He has this innate ability to drive people crazy.”
“It’s not based on ideology,” the Republican added. “It’s based on personality.”
The broad ill will toward Cruz among Republicans has helped to propel his presidential campaign, lending Cruz credibility to run as a senator with an anti-Washington message. Now, it will be Cruz’s challenge to appeal to those same Republicans’ pragmatism and their misgivings about Trump.
And it appears he’s making progress.
“Cruz is not my preference,” Graham said. “Most people like me would rather have Kasich or Rubio. But I just don’t see them being able to take Trump down.”
________________________________
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Cruz may develop more of his personal leadership qualities if he appears to be in line for the nomination. I hope so anyway. General election candidates — and certainly presidents — need those. They need to be able to inspire and evangelize, if you will, the unconverted. So far, I’m not seeing those qualities in him, either as a primary election candidate or as a senator. He’s more of a “my way or the highway” kind of guy. So far.
Our country needs someone who can speak persuasively to a broader audience than just a small, core base. And someone who can do that winsomely.
The conservative movement needs someone who can bring in new people and speak to those who are not of our “traditional” core group if it is to thrive again and govern effectively. I’m not persuaded Cruz can do that, but I may be wrong.
And we also need to remember that even if Cruz (or one of the other non-Trump candidates) manages to get the nomination, there will almost certainly be a Trump 3rd candidacy that threatens to split the (already minority) Republican voter base.
Challenges abound.
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Um, meanwhile, did mumsee just threaten me?? And AJ will probably help her beat me up after those posts. 🙄
Good thing elections don’t happen too often.
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Oh, we remember well, that time down at the dock. Telling me to take a long walk on a short pier in cement boots….
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donna j: Anyone who has followed Sen. Cruz’s career in the Senate knows that (contrary to the Real Clear Politics piece) he most definitely is NOT establishment, and that it definitely has been substance that actually separates him from other Republicans. He stood on principle and the Constitution even when no one else would…
There’s still time for you to come around…
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My concern overall, too, is that a president needs to be president of all the people. Reagan pulled it off (not to say he didn’t have his detractors); our current president clearly has not (and with bitter and devastating results).
Our country is terribly divided. I’d love to see a conservative president who is also gifted uniquely as a leader. It’s asking a lot, I realize, but that’s my prayer for our nation as a whole. We’re in bad shape, folks.
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and having a conservative president who doesn’t also have (very) strong leadership qualities and skills in bringing people together with a vision and with broad inspiration, in the end, isn’t going to get us out of this mess.
I haven’t seen those qualities (yet) in Cruz.
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And it concerns me that I know numerous Republicans who simply dislike him. He’s got some work to do for a general election run.
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Being popular with a small subset of one political party won’t carry him far. He needs to broaden his appeal. Of course, then he won’t be that popular with the small subset any longer ….
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People certainly didn’t know that Reagan would become who he became when he was running for President – “An actor – you’ve got to be kidding!”
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True — people often grow into the job (or don’t). But you could see the seeds of Reagan’s appeal as a national leader long before he became president.
It bothers me that so many conservatives I know see the opposite in Ted Cruz.
But we have a ways to go, things (and people and candidates) change and can blossom …
And hope springs eternal!
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And be prepared for this: If Cruz is nominated (and further, if he wins the general election in November) he automatically becomes the had of what is then the Republican establishment. 🙂
Sorry.
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head …
Mumsee, I have idea of what you’re accusing me.
:innocent:
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O:-)
Testing
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Hmmm
There must be a halo-angel smiley, right?
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I like it!
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Ah, and yet another pesky, false email caper — getting old.
_____________________________
Marco Rubio’s campaign accused Ted Cruz’s camp of “dirty tricks” Tuesday, after Cruz supporters in Hawaii blasted out an email suggesting the Florida senator was about to drop out of the race.
The email, sent by “Ted Cruz Hawaii,” cites a disputed CNN report claiming some Rubio advisers have told him to drop out of the 2016 race before Florida’s primary next week, fearing he could be humiliated by a defeat in his home state….
… Rubio’s campaign already has adamantly denied the CNN report — and when it turned up in the Hawaii email, immediately blasted Cruz for “dirty tricks.” …
A spokeswoman for the Cruz campaign told Fox News the website had not only been told to take down the email, but had also been told to cease using official campaign logos for any purpose.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the website for the organization – http://www.TedCruzHawaii.org – appeared to have been taken down.
___________________________________________
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/08/rubio-camp-accuses-cruz-dirty-tricks-over-hawaii-dropout-email.html
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Shouldn’t the issue be CNN’s supposedly false reporting, and not that someone in the Cruz campaign in Hawaii passed the bogus story along? Sounds like more whining from little Marco. 😆
And they’re right, it will be humiliating for him and his supporters when he loses his home state of Florida.
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He denied it.
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It’s happened too often, Cruz apparently has some wild young Turks running out of his back campaign offices.
Well, at least he admitted it and took the info down (again)
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That’s exactly the kind of ruthlessness that frankly disturbs me about Cruz.
I hope I’m wrong about him and/or he begins to grow into the roll of potential general election candidate. Again, he has some bridges to build (heard from yet another GOP friend today how “creepy” Cruz strikes him).
Don’t blame the messenger, that image of him is just pretty pervasive.
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role.
Maybe he’ll roll into the role. Given time.
Meanwhile, there’s still The Donald to worry about. …
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Honestly, though, if Republicans could get their act together for just a little while … Argh. But they can’t.
Not holding out much hope for November, I’m afraid.
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And, yes, so Rubio is short. And he’s losing. Sheesh. 🙄
So we’ve all picked up Trump’s brilliant & mocking talking points now. That is NOT a good thing.
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Ruthlessness? That? Seriously? 🙄
And if Rubio can’t take something so small and minor, Dems will eat him alive.
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Well, he’s already being devoured. 🙂
And besides ….
We’d better keep our eyes on the elephant in the room who ain’t gone yet.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/republican-primaries-2016-ledeall-220455
Polls predict the billionaire business mogul will run riot in Michigan and Mississippi, wins that would paper over Saturday’s losses to Ted Cruz. If Trump can beat Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Midwest, while also blowing out Cruz in the deep South, the GOP establishment will have gone to war against its own party’s frontrunner and gotten nothing to show for it.
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Fox: RIMARY TUESDAY: Exit polls show late-deciders in Michigan breaking for Kasich, Cruz; independents go Trump
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The thing to remember, too, is we’ll all have to (somehow) unite and be on the same team after this is all over. Hold some of that fire for the Democrats. 😉
It’s so split now, it’s hard to say who the standard bearer will end up being (although Trump gets my bail-out, most likely I’m afraid).
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I voted. It was difficult.
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I have a brother who likes Trump. He has liked Trump even since Trump’s days on WWE! (Wrestling.)
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I was happy to vote for Cruz today. He certainly isn’t charismatic, but I don’t get the “creepy” characterization. I get the “ruthless” characterization even less.
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Five minutes until polls close in Michigan’s westernmost parts. Most of us finished last hour. Turnout was good.
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Good news for Cruz….. if we can get rid of the hanger ons.
Especially interesting is the attributes of the candidates. Cruz wins in every category, and Trump can’t get past 45 percent in any.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hits-wall-gop-critics-back-convention-fight/story?id=37474752
“Donald Trump’s facing a wall within his party, with Republicans who don’t currently support him far more apt to prefer Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in a two-way race — or even to favor a contested convention to block Trump’s nomination.
Trump continues to lead in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 34 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who are registered to vote saying they’d like to see him win the nomination. But he trails both Cruz and Rubio one-on-one. And preferences for Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich have grown as others have left the race, while Trump’s support has essentially remained unchanged for months.”
“Other results also mark Trump’s challenges as a front-runner under siege. He trails Cruz and Rubio alike in all four personal attributes tested in this survey. Fewer than half of leaned Republicans -– from 42 to 45 percent –- call Trump honest and trustworthy, say he understands their problems, think he has the right personality and temperament, or say he has the right experience to be president. Comparable numbers are 63 or 64 percent on each attribute for Cruz and 61 to 63 percent for Rubio on the first three items. He slips to 50 percent on experience.
Some of these have worsened for Trump: a 12-point drop among leaned Republicans since September in seeing him as honest and trustworthy and an 8-point drop in thinking he has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president.”
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Poll watchers say Trump needs to clear 35 tonight in his wins.
It has been impressive that he’s done so well in such disparate parts of the country, from the Deep South to New England and the Midwest.
Let the process play on, we’ll see who’s left standing. But it’s looking more and more like no one candidate will get the needed delegates for a first-ballot nomination.
If we’re lucky, Trump — should he not be nominated — will decide NOT to mount an independent campaign.
A big if.
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Mississippi has fallen.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/republican-primaries-2016-ledeall-220455
____________________________________________
Donald Trump easily snatched up the first of Tuesday’s four GOP contests, handily winning Mississippi as he tries to squash rivals’ claims that his weekend losses reflect some lasting vulnerability.
Three television networks called Mississippi for Trump, projecting the GOP front-runner with 52 percent of a vote that was still being counted. It marks a painful defeat for Ted Cruz, whose campaign stunned Republicans with upsets in Kansas and Maine on Saturday and whose campaign strategy was built on the expectation of success in conservative southern states.
The biggest contest of the night is yet to come – Michigan and its 59 delegates. The Midwestern state tests Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s theory that his campaign will perform better up north, terrain he considers his “turf.” …
____________________________________________
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And Michigan, too.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/08/fox-news-projects-trump-wins-primaries-in-mich-miss-clinton-wins-in-miss.html
______________________________
Donald Trump swept to victory Tuesday in delegate-rich primaries in Michigan and Mississippi, Fox News projects, regaining momentum after his stunning march through the primaries was slowed over the weekend – while Hillary Clinton once again found herself faced with the prospect of splitting the night’s contests with rival Bernie Sanders.
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It’s up to mumsee now.
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Cruz.
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Bernie got an upset in Michigan.
Crazy year.
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Go Idaho.
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Interesting to me the almost complete absence in this election cycle of debate over social issues that have dominated conservative-liberal positions in the past (abortion, gay marriage, etc.).
Not sure what that means, but these issues don’t seem to be driving much of the discussion for the first time in a while. I suppose a good part of it may be that the liberal positions have become so widely accepted in the culture as a whole (not to mention codified).
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mumsee: You picked the winner in your state!
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