34 thoughts on “News/Politics 4-3-25

  1. HRW, you may be right in your comment yesterday about the connection between Houthi attacks stopping when there’s a cease-fire in Gaza. I haven’t kept up well with what’s been going on in Yemen, but from what I have read your description sounds about right. I’m afraid the Israeli tail is in danger of taking the dog over entirely here. But I am still hopeful Trump can do something helpful without warring with Iran (which would be a complete disaster).

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  2. There are some “gulp” moments on the morning after … :

    • Stocks Plunge, Dollar Sinks After Trump’s Tariffs Blitz
    • Nasdaq slides 4%, S&P tumbles 3%; Dow industrials plummet 1,100 points

    And: “Some Chinese commentators see silver lining of steep tariff hike” – “Canada to hit U.S. autos with retaliatory tariffs” – “Why this market upheaval could be just the start” – “Tariffs leave Apple with nothing but hard choices” –

    I’m not looking at my 401K for a while … 🙂

    • dj

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  3. Yeah, DJ, I haven’t looked at mine either, but curiosity will probably get the better of me this weekend. Of course, I don’t have all that much to lose, so I won’t sweat it too much either way.

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  4. Debra, me either (have that much to lose)! And things will (hopefully) settle down a little? We will see.

    But glad I shouldn’t have to buy a car anytime soon.

    Saw a news segment last night about a car dealership getting flooded with shoppers trying to get something before midnight; one woman had her eye on a very cool Jeep Wrangler, she was planning already on buying it later this year, but then decided to get it last night, just in case … probably wise.

    • dj

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  5. It was difficult to buy a car during Covid, or toward the end of it, when pickings were so slim and we had to pay more than sticker price which we had never done. Sometimes people don’t have a choice when they have to buy a car.

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  6. Relax – this will settle. The market is correcting, just give it time.

    A lot more jobs will be coming to the USA.

    You’ve got to break a few eggs to make a beautiful omelet. 😉

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  7. Oh noooos……!

    Reciprocal auto tariffs from Canada!

    Guess Chevy, GM, Toyota, and Honda will have to move those production lines back to the US, which is the point.

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  8. Despite the hand wringing and pearl clutching from the usual suspects, America is back!

    https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1907865139103281612?t=JibFQQQUShknSfnroERjEg&s=19

    “THE GREAT DEAL:

    TARIFFS ON IMPORTS, NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY, ENDING HARMFUL REGULATIONS, AMERICAN ENERGY DOMINANCE”

    —-

    “Tariffs are leverage, not punishment—forcing fair trade while protecting American jobs. Cutting taxes on tips and Social Security puts money back in workers’ pockets, not D.C.’s coffers. Deregulation slashes bureaucratic bloat, unleashing energy dominance and reviving industries gutted by decades of globalist deals.

    The USMCA proved reshoring works, with median household incomes surging 10.5% in three years under pro-America policies. Real growth comes from prioritizing production, not parasitic regulations.

    The “Great Deal” is simple: America wins when D.C. stops sabotaging its own economy.”

    https://x.com/dogeai_gov/status/1907865864075927917?t=l7sPZ8upNyM29XEDMHEcwQ&s=19

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  9. @2:10, true, about choice to buy a car. In this case the higher prices are being somewhat optional / self-imposed, however.

    Sorry, AJ @2:47, I seem to have lost my pearls, once again. Sigh. And now I can’t afford any. 🙂

    Let’s keep our sense of humor …

    • dj

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  10. I believe we’ve been told by the president that we need to endure some “short-term” pain. But those specifics are pretty cloudy, the “short” part of that phrase pretty indefinite. ?

    And that pain is easier to endure for some than it is for others.

    • dj

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  11. Oh, they have some lovely faux pearls now, DJ, if you ever feel the need to clutch. I would never clutch the real thing anyway. In all the excited chaos I might break the necklace and all my hopes of a swanky retirement would go rolling down the heating vent. That’s if I had any to clutch.

    I dread having to buy another car in any economy. I hate shopping for cars or shoes .

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  12. Ok, confession, my only other pearls given to me by my mom when I was probably in my 20s were also faux.

    (Ducking for incoming fire):

    ~ (WSJ) How might tariffs affect American consumers and businesses?

    Trump’s latest tariff announcement sent U.S. stock futures lower, with some investors worried about the prospect of slower growth and higher inflation. Prior to Wednesday, there had already been fears that more tariffs would help push the American economy into a recession.

    The announcement gives some clarity to businesses, including those that rely on imported goods, although the broad and complex nature of the new tariff regime will take firms time to figure out.

    Many economists have been adamant that tariffs will push up prices for American consumers, as firms pass along some of the additional costs. BlueBay Asset Management firm, a unit of RBC Global Asset Management, estimated that the new tariffs will push U.S. inflation up 1%. It said economic growth will likely slow to 1.5% but that the U.S. probably wouldn’t fall into recession.

    Even before Trump’s tariff announcement, American families had already started to pull back spending. Sales have started to soften for airlines and convenience stores. 

    Automakers and parts manufacturers have said they were likely to pass some of the tariff costs on to consumers. Morgan Stanley estimates that, on average, vehicle prices could rise 11% to 12% to offset duties. … ~

    • dj

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  13. I have been considering how much more light has been able to be shined in on the dark and devious deeds of the abusers of our Government and theft of taxpayers money because Biden was allowed to have those four years. The corrections we see happening so quickly in many realms would never have happened if Biden had not been in office. I am still in awe at some of these corrections.

    Is anyone still talking about Signal? Now it is all tariffs. At least we get to hear the complaints. Thanking God for free speech.

    In my accounting theory class, we studied the “on-going business” theory which means forecasting outward to look for gains and operate as if the business plans to continue. It seems to me the path we were on before this administration came in was a “Fire Sale” mentality.

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  14. Speaking of light shined on dark places and devious deeds…..

    https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/bombshell-report-confirms-grassley-oversight-of-biden-harris-admins-failure-to-protect-migrant-children

    “Bombshell Report Confirms Grassley Oversight of Biden-Harris Admin’s Failure to Protect Migrant ChildrenNonpartisan watchdog found Biden-Harris administration lost track of hundreds-of-thousands of children, placed children with dangerous sponsors and restricted information sharing with law enforcement.

    WASHINGTON – The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) confirmed Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) numerous concerns about abuse in the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) unaccompanied alien children (UAC) program. Under the Biden-Harris administration, more than 500,000 children crossed the Southern border and entered the UAC program, while cartel trafficking activity surged.

    Grassley repeatedly warned that the Biden-Harris UAC program’s inadequate safeguards, lax vetting procedures and limited inter-agency communication allowed children to be lost or released to dangerous adult sponsors. DHS OIG’s report validated all of Grassley’s findings. Notably, the report exposed how DHS was prevented from receiving key HHS information to follow up on potential criminal sponsors. Grassley broke through this inter-agency firewall last year by submitting a law enforcement referral to DHS containing HHS information provided to Grassley by legally protected whistleblowers. DHS’s Homeland Security Investigations followed up on 102 investigative targets Grassley identified.

    “My oversight revealed the Biden-Harris administration prioritized speed and optics over the safety and security of hundreds-of-thousands of migrant children. DHS OIG’s report echoes my longstanding concerns and further fuels the fire of my investigative and legislative work. I’ll continue fighting to ensure abuse like this never happens again,” Grassley said. “

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  15. Tariffs will be complicated is the summary, I think. “We will see.”

    (And yes, Signal carries on):

    * Waltz’s team set up at least 20 Signal group chats for crises across the world (politico)

    • A Pentatgon inspector general announces investigation into Hegseth’s use of Signal

      * Waltz’s Signal chat woes snowball as Trump admin defends national security advisor (Fox News)

    Re Tariffs (not all negative):

    ~ … untangling the world’s supply chains and relocating to the U.S. in the way Trump wants is a daunting task, given the costs involved. There is also the risk that Trump will lower tariffs if he can use them to wring concessions on trade from other countries, executives say. Economists warn the world could face a growth-sapping investment crunch as companies sit on the sidelines until the trade-war fog clears. 

    “Shifting things around is going to be quite complicated,” said Derrick Kam, Asia economist at Morgan Stanley. That process will be slow, expensive and challenging, he said. …

    ~ The president wants companies to return production to the U.S., but it won’t be easy

    ~ “You can’t just put on tariffs and flip a switch and all of a sudden America is an industrial nation again,” said Dan Digre, president and CEO of Misco Speakers, a St. Paul, Minn.-based manufacturer of audio systems used in amusement parks, medical devices and spacecraft.

    Another problem: U.S. manufacturing is geared toward advanced technology and doesn’t have ready domestic supplies of basic materials and components that can be much more cheaply produced overseas. Already, U.S. manufacturers are struggling with the rising cost of screws, nuts and bolts, highlighting the need for easy access to global supply chains. … ~

    The piece also notes, however:

    ~ … There are signs Trump’s strategy is having an effect. Around half of German engineering businesses want to boost U.S. investment, both as a result of the tariffs and the size of the market, according to a November survey by the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association, or VDMA, a lobby group. Most members “look to the U.S. as a growth opportunity,” said Andrew Adair, a VDMA official. …

    wsj

    • dj

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  16. Americans can be an odd sort at times. I remember when Walmart was champion of “made in the USA”. My Dad loved shopping there reading labels to make certain he purchased USA made products. He was an electrician for General Motors…he would not allow me to park my Honda in his driveway!

    When working at a small business selling antiques and home goods, we carried lovely lamps made in the USA along with other items made here. Customers would complain that the lamp cost 500.00! My friend would point them to the lamp made in China which was of similar style but the customer would always reply “but it isn’t as nice as the US made one”. Well sometimes you get what you pay for!

    It seems many do not want to feel the pinch to correct the out of balance trade…other countries have gouged us but in return we have not gouged them. Now it time to settle up. I for one am looking forward to a thriving American economy purchasing American products.

    And Debra I love shopping for shoes!! Cars not so much! Although we did purchase our CRV during Covid…only two cars in the dealer’s lot from which to choose…one white the other black…I chose the black one! We paid way too much but we needed a car…Nj

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  17. Closing bell has sounded.

    ~ Stocks Suffer Biggest One-Day Wipeout in Value Since March 2020

    U.S. markets slid in their steepest declines since 2020, as investors grappled with the threat that President Trump’s new tariff plan will trigger global retaliation and hurt the economy. ~

    Actions do bring reactions …

    • dj

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  18. But from one financial institution:

    “The best- and worst-performing days of the stock market often occur in close succession, making it difficult to time when to sell or buy. Investors who have stayed the course during downturns have been able to take advantage of market recoveries and have typically come out ahead of those who moved to the sidelines.

    “While we can’t predict when the volatility will subside, history shows the markets will ultimately rebound.”

    Hope springs … – 🙂

    • dj

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  19. Tariffs probably require a sustained effort, at least for a while. Remember the US government incentivized companies for a long , long time , both with tax breaks and other policies, to move out of the US. It could take the drastic tariffs we’re now using to incentivize movement back home. It’s probably going to be painful for a bit, and we should try not to defund any programs that could help mitigate the pain to some degree, at least for those people least able to bear it.

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  20. Will it work?

    ~ for the first part of Trump’s Wednesday speech, the market moved higher. This rally is crazy, (60-year-old hedge fund manager Rob) Citrone thought, and added to his bets that stocks would fall.

    Then the president unveiled a plan that went further and wider than most investors thought possible. Trump had just taken on the globe in a trade war. A market rout was on. 

    “I should have sold more,” Citrone said.

    Across Wall Street, money managers, brokers and bankers were reeling from what many described as an unprecedented shock, and fearing it marked an end to the market’s post-Covid rally. They might have lived through much bigger market swings, but this one—induced by a U.S. president bent on establishing a new paradigm for global trade, at the expense of rivals and allies alike—felt incomparable because it was the result of deliberate policy. …

    … Thursday’s market drop may have been, according to DRW Trading Group’s Lou Brien, “as swift as I’ve even seen,” but it will take time for investors to digest fully what Trump’s tariffs mean. “It is a process, not an event,” he said. …

    During the pandemic, when the U.S. stock market suffered multiple “Black Monday” crashes, the U.S. government raced in with a flurry of actions to stimulate the economy, and within weeks stocks resumed their upward climb. 

    But this time, Washington has been the cause of the selloff, not the solution.  

    Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says she spent six hours on a Sunday in early February writing research briefings about the potential effects of 25% levies on Mexico and Canada, only to find out that last-minute deals were struck with both countries to delay the tariffs.

    “We’ve been the frog in boiling water here, getting used to the dramatic nature of these announcements,” Cox said. “Today is a day where investors are just beaten into acceptance.”

    (WSJ)

    • dj

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  21. Tariffs

    — No tariffs were applied to Russia and Belarus prompting some to wonder why Trump was being pro-Russian. Others pointed out that due to embargoes, boycotts etc there was barely any trade with these countries (and Cuba/North Korea who also received no tariffs) but then why were tariffs applied to Syria — which is incapable of trading given its civil war and why were tariffs applied to the penguins of Heard Island.

    — Canada’s auto tariffs only applied to trade outside USMCA and did not include auto parts. Essentially it applies to “foreign” cars (Toyota, VW, etc) assembled in the US without Cdn parts. (AJ – Not sure how this will induce Toyota etc to move their Cdn plants to the US, if Trump’s tariff theory is correct they’ll stay in Canada)

    — Stellantis (Chrysler) has laid off workers in Ontario, Michigan and Ohio in response to tariffs.

    — tariffs are taxes levied on the home country. Trump just created one of the largest tax hikes in US history. I thought the ability to levy taxes belong to the legislature but apparently the House doesn’t do any work lately.

    — if the USMCA works as AJ posted at 2:43; why did Trump break the agreement by levying taxes. Ironically he called it a great deal when he initially signed it.

    hrw

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  22. Vance does not need permission from “far left Democrats” but due process is still needed. Judge Scalia made that ruling in 1994 that even non citizens are afforded due process in deportation hearings. And as it becomes clear, the lack of due process on the flights to El Salvador has made mistakes. Admin has admitted they made errors but apparently can’t bring people back.

    Meanwhile, people with valid student visas and green cards are being arrested and held by ICE for criticising Israel. As I mentioned before, Israel has really become the tail that wags the dog. A solution to the Middle East is probably easier for Trump than Ukraine — just tell Bibi the free ride in weapons etc ends if there’s not cease fire. And once there is a cease fire, the Houthis will cease to be a problem. Unfortunately I think the Gaza golf and beach resort was more than a joke by Trump.

    hrw

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